Regimen changes and duration in the European Monetary System
This paper examines the regime changes in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS), applying the duration model approach to weekly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete EMS history. When using the non-parametric (univariate) analysis, we found that for those regimens with long durations, the ERM would have been relatively stable, while for the (more common) regimes associated with short durations would have been more unstable. The probability of maintaining a certain regime is estimated to be 0.685. When applying a parametric (multivariate) analysis to investigate the role of other variables in the probability of a regime change, we conclude that the interest rate differential with Germany and the magnitude of the realignment would have negatively affected the duration of a given regime, while credibility would have positively influenced such duration. Finally, when distinguishing between groups of currencies, we observe that those in the core are more stable than those in the periphery, obtaining evidence against equality of survival functions among these groups of currencies.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Óscar Bajo Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez, 2000.
"Asymmetry In The Ems: New Evidence Based On Non-Linear Forecasts,"
Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra
0001, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
- Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando, 2001. "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 451-473, March.
- Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernado Fernández-Rodríguez, "undated". "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," Working Papers 97-24, FEDEA.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990.
"The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility,"
NBER Working Papers
3394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada, "undated".
"Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: Evidence from the EMS,"
- Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October.
- Bryon Higgins, 1993. "Was the ERM crisis inevitable?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 27-40.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 1999. "Explaining Recent European Exchange-Rate Stability," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, April.
- Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991.
"Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries,"
1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-175, January.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Oscar Bajo-Rubio, 1999. "Exchange rate volatility in the EMS before and after the fall," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 717-722.
- Weber, A.A., 1991. "EMS Credibility," Papers 9103, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990.
"Target Zones and Realignments,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- F. FernAndez-RodrIguez & S. Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Andrada-FElix, 2003. "Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 113-122.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
- Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Martín-González., "undated". "Credibility in the EMS: New evidence using nonlinear forecastability tests," Working Papers 97-14, FEDEA.
- Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-519, March.
- Weber, A., 1991. "EMS Credibility," Discussion Paper 1991-3, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:0205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jose L. Torres)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.