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Does currency crisis identification matter?

Author

Listed:
  • S. DeVicerte
  • P. Alvarez
  • J. Perez
  • C. Caso

Abstract

Empirical studies employ very different methods to identify the moments at which currency crises occur. In previous works we have shown that considerable variations exist between the crises indicated by each of them. In this work, we use a broad sample of these indicators as a dependent variable in one of the most frequently cited Early Warning System models and show that significant differences appear in the variables that enable currency crises to be anticipated.

Suggested Citation

  • S. DeVicerte & P. Alvarez & J. Perez & C. Caso, 2008. "Does currency crisis identification matter?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 387-395.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:18:y:2008:i:5:p:387-395
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100600949192
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Esquivel, Gerardo & Larraín B, Felipe, 2000. "Determinantes de las crisis cambiarias," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(266), pages 191-237, abril-jun.
    3. S. Sosvilla-Rivero & R. Maroto-Illera, 2003. "Regimen changes and duration in the European Monetary System," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(18), pages 1923-1933.
    4. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    5. Burkart, O. & Coudert, V., 2000. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies," Working papers 74, Banque de France.
    6. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
    8. Glick, R. & Moreno, R., 1999. "Money and Credit, Competitiveness, and Currency Crises in Asia and Latin America," Papers 99-01, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
    9. J. Pérez, 2005. "Empirical identification of currency crises: differences and similarities between indicators," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 41-46, January.
    10. Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Thomas Elger & Alicia Gazely & Andrew Mullineux, 2005. "A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks: an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 665-680.
    11. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zeynep KARACOR & Korhan GOKMENOGLU, 2012. "Predictability Of Financial Crises: Testing K.R.L. Model In The Case Of Turkey," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2, pages 5-16, June.
    2. Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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