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On the Credibility of the Irish Pound in the EMS

  • Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez

    (Universidad de La Laguna)

  • Manuel Navarro-Ibanez

    (Universidad de La Laguna)

  • Jorge Perez-Rodriguez

    (Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria)

  • Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

    (FEDEA and Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

This paper assesses the degree of credibility of the Irish Pound in the European Monetary System between 1983 and 1997. Different credibility indicators proposed in the literature are used to measure agents’ perceptions of the credibility of the ERM commitment in an attempt to distinguish between events stemming from problems in the ERM itself and those that appear to have been exclusive to Ireland.

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File URL: http://www.esr.ie/vol31_2/3Sosvilla.pdf
File Function: First version, 2000
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Article provided by Economic and Social Studies in its journal Economic and Social Review.

Volume (Year): 31 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 151-172

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Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:31:y:2000:i:2:p:151-172
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  1. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," CEPR Discussion Papers 852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August.
  5. Jeroen J. M. Kremers, 1990. "Gaining Policy Credibility for a Disinflation: Ireland's Experience in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(1), pages 116-145, March.
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
  7. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. repec:dgr:kubcen:19913 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Honohan, Patrick & Conroy, Charles, 1994. "Irish Interest Rate Fluctuations in The European Monetary System," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS165.
  10. Weber, A.A., 1991. "EMS Credibility," Papers 9103, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  11. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," NBER Working Papers 3394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Weber, A., 1991. "EMS Credibility," Discussion Paper 1991-3, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  14. Walsh, Brendan, 1993. "Credibility, Interest Rates and the ERM: The Irish Experience," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 439-52, November.
  15. Darvas, Zsolt, 1998. "Spurious Correlation in Exchange Rate Target Zone Modelling: Testing the Drift Adjustment Method on the US Dollar, Random Walk and Chaos," CEPR Discussion Papers 1890, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
  17. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Oscar Bajo-Rubio, 1999. "Exchange rate volatility in the EMS before and after the fall," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 717-722.
  18. Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1985-92," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1170-79, September.
  19. Leonardo Bartolini, 1993. "Devaluation and Competitiveness in a Small Open Economy; Ireland 1987-1993," IMF Working Papers 93/82, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1988. "Credibility, Debt and Unemployment: Ireland's Failed Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 2785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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