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Gaining Policy Credibility for a Disinflation: Ireland's Experience in the EMS

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  • Jeroen J. M. Kremers

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Given a need for disinflation, the adoption of a (semi-)fixed exchange rate policy vis-Ã -vis a low-inflation country may provide a source of discipline, enhancing the disinflation's credibility and reducing its detrimental impact on the economy. This paper presents empirical evidence that inflation expectations in Ireland were moderated by entry into the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS, indicating that Ireland's disinflation was successful in deriving credibility from the exchange rate policy. A loss of competitiveness at an early stage of the disinflation appears to have been important in establishing its credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeroen J. M. Kremers, 1990. "Gaining Policy Credibility for a Disinflation: Ireland's Experience in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(1), pages 116-145, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:37:y:1990:i:1:p:116-145
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Rebucci & Marco Rossi, 2004. "Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets; A Bayesian Approach with An Application to Turkey," IMF Working Papers 04/208, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28.
    3. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kavanagh, Ella & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Macroeconomic Response to Shocks," Book Chapters,in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.), Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 5, pages 105-142 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Johannes Groeneveld & Kees Koedijk & Clemens Kool, 1998. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Strategies: Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 21-38, January.
    5. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2000. "On the Credibility of the Irish Pound in the EMS," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 151-172.
    6. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters,in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.), Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters,in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.), Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Baker, Terence J. & Duffy, David & Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Manufacturing Sector," Book Chapters,in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.), Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 7, pages 174-221 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Gürbüz Beşek, Yeşim, 2011. "Crédibilité en matière de ciblage d'inflation," GIAM Working Papers 11-1, Galatasaray University Economic Research Center, revised 08 Feb 2011.
    9. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Introduction," Book Chapters,in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.), Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 1, pages 1-9 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Adapting to Regime Change," Book Chapters,in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.), Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 10-36 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Macroeconomy in Stable Conditions," Book Chapters,in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.), Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 50-86 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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