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Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Strategies: Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries


  • Johannes Groeneveld
  • Kees Koedijk
  • Clemens Kool


In this paper we address the issue whether a switch to inflation targeting can help build monetary policy credibility and can substitute for a track record of low inflation. To this end, we empirically evaluate the success of inflation targeting in Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and investigate to what extent the joint dynamic processes of inflation and nominal interest rates in these three countries have experienced a structural break at the time of the regime switch to inflation targeting. The experience of Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom is matched with the United States, Australia and Germany. We find that the effectiveness of the direct inflation targeting approach to quickly increase low-inflation credibility so far is ambiguous and that this strategy is not clearly superior to intermediate monetary strategies. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Groeneveld & Kees Koedijk & Clemens Kool, 1998. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Strategies: Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 21-38, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:9:y:1998:i:1:p:21-38
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008223206085

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Canzoneri, Matthew B, 1985. "Monetary Policy Games and the Role of Private Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1056-1070, December.
    3. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Nolan, Charles & Yates, Anthony, 1997. "Mechanisms for Achieving Monetary Stability: Inflation Targeting versus the ERM," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 46-60, February.
    4. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Disinflation with imperfect credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-23, February.
    5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995. "The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," NBER Working Papers 4985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jeroen J. M. Kremers, 1990. "Gaining Policy Credibility for a Disinflation: Ireland's Experience in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(1), pages 116-145, March.
    7. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "Testing for Credibility Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 545-571, September.
    8. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December.
    9. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baltensperger, Ernst & Fischer, Andreas M. & Jordan, Thomas J., 2007. "Strong goal independence and inflation targets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 88-105, March.
    2. V A Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 1995. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targets and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions in OECD Economies"," Working Papers 9606, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 1996.
    3. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:37-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Muscatelli, Anton & Trecroci, Carmine, 2000. " Monetary Policy Rules, Policy Preferences, and Uncertainty: Recent Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 597-627, December.
    5. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Muscatelli, V Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2002. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 487-527, Special I.
    7. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2006. "Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 431-450.
    8. Flávio de Freitas Val & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2017. "Estimating the Credibility of Brazilian Monetary Policy using Forward Measures and a State-Space Model," Working Papers Series 463, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    10. Marjan Petreski, 2009. "A Critique On Inflation Targeting," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 11-24, December.
    11. Dai, Meixing, 2007. "The design of a ‘two-pillar’ monetary policy strategy," MPRA Paper 14403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
    12. Holmes, Mark J. & Dutu, Richard & Cui, Xiaoman, 2009. "Real interest rates, inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 351-360, March.
    13. repec:eee:jebusi:v:92:y:2017:i:c:p:45-62 is not listed on IDEAS


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