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The Credibility of the European Monetary System: A Review

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  • Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez
  • Manuel Navarro-Ibánez
  • Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez
  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

Abstract

The paper presents an overview of several studies about the credibility of the European Monetary System (EMS). These studies compare different credibility indicators in terms of their ability to detect exchange rate crises in a target zone. Marginal credibility seems to be the best measure for capturing the main events. The credibility indices are also applied to the first years of the current ERM-II. The history of the EMS suggests that, in an environment of financial deregulation and high capital flows, such an exchange rate system can only operate as a temporary regime that is moving towards a full monetary union, since it may be too fragile as a permanent monetary regime.
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  • Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibánez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "The Credibility of the European Monetary System: A Review," Studies on the Spanish Economy 179, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:179
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    1. Ledesma Rodríguez, Francisco J. & Ibáñez, Manuel Navarro & Pérez Rodríguez, Jorge V. & Rivero, Simón Sosvilla, 2005. "Regímenes cambiarios de iure y de facto. El caso de la peseta/dólar, 1965–1998," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 541-561, December.
    2. Mammadov, Fuad, 2014. "Central Bank Credibility and Black Market Exchange Rate Premia: A Panel Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 65572, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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