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An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS

  • Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez
  • Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez
  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

This study provides empirical evidence on the determinants of exchange rate credibility under the European Monetary System (EMS). To that end, it considers both economic variables and political factors using data of eight currencies participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, covering the complete EMS history (1979 to 1998). The results suggest that the level of international reserves, the real interest rate and right-wing governments would have positively affected the credibility of a given central parity, while the unemployment rate and the inflation rate would have negatively influenced such credibility.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers on International Economics and Finance with number 04-01.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdadef:04-01
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  1. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 2001-04, FEDEA.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," NBER Working Papers 3394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Allan Drazen, 2000. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 47-67 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
  5. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2003. "On the Credibility of a Target Zone: Evidence from the EMS," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/33, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  6. Kempa, Bernd & Nelles, Michael, 1999. " The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 173-210, April.
  7. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July.
  8. Bertola, G. & Cabarello, R.J., 1990. "Target Zones And Realignments," Discussion Papers 1990_51, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  9. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
  10. Alogoskoufis, George S & Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 1992. "Wage Inflation, Electoral Uncertainty and the Exchange Rate Regime: Theory and UK Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1370-94, November.
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