IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fda/fdaddt/2001-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the credibility of a target zone: Evidence from the EMS

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez
  • Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez
  • Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez
  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

Abstract

In this paper we provide some new evidence on the credibility of the ERM. Our paper differs from the previous literature in three main respects. First, its main contribution is the use of several credibility indicators, some of them never been applied before to all the currencies under study. This allows to strengthen the results obtained in this paper. Second, we analyse a longer period than that considered in previous studies, covering the complete EMS history. Third, we have carried out a simple comparison of the prediction qualities of the different indicators, in order to explore their ability to capture the main ERM events. Our results suggest credibility gains for most of the currencies before the monetary turmoil in 1992, followed by generalised credibility losses. After the widening of the fluctuation bands, there is evidence of a gradual improvement in credibility. Finally, the marginal credibility measure seems to be the best credibility indicator to capture the main events in the EMS history.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 2001-04, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2001-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/dt/2001/dt-2001-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January.
    2. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2000. "On the Credibility of the Irish Pound in the EMS," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 151-172.
    3. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    4. Weber, Axel A, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 554, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Garcia, Rene & Gencay, Ramazan, 2000. "Pricing and hedging derivative securities with neural networks and a homogeneity hint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 93-115.
    6. Axel A. Weber, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching and Intervention in Exchange Rate Target Zones: Empirical Evidence from the EMS," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 20-91, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
    7. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-141, March-Apr.
    8. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Oscar Bajo-Rubio, 1999. "Exchange rate volatility in the EMS before and after the fall," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 717-722.
    9. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando, 2001. "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 451-473, March.
    10. Darvas, Zsolt, 1998. "Spurious Correlation in Exchange Rate Target Zone Modelling: Testing the Drift Adjustment Method on the US Dollar, Random Walk and Chaos," CEPR Discussion Papers 1890, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Taylor, Stephen J, 1992. "Rewards Available to Currency Futures Speculators: Compensation for Risk or Evidence of Inefficient Pricing?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 105-116, Supplemen.
    12. De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 1999. "Explaining Recent European Exchange-Rate Stability," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, April.
    13. Seiford, Lawrence M. & Thrall, Robert M., 1990. "Recent developments in DEA : The mathematical programming approach to frontier analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1-2), pages 7-38.
    14. Weber, A., 1991. "EMS Credibility," Discussion Paper 1991-3, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Juan Ayuso & M.P. Jurado & Fernando Restoy, 1994. "Is Exchange Rate Risk Higher in the E.R.M. after the Widening of Fluctuation Bands?," Working Papers 9419, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Victor Echevarria Icaza & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Yields on sovereign debt, fragmentation and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: A GVAR approach," Working Papers 17-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    2. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“On the bi-directional causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in EMU countries”," IREA Working Papers 201512, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2015.
    3. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 847-850.
    4. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Javier Sosvilla-Rivero, 2016. "Debt-growth linkages in EMU across countries and time horizons," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1602, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    5. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2007. "Price convergence in the European car market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 241-250.
    6. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
    7. Michael Frömmel, 2010. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries’ Exchange Rates," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 2-21, February.
    8. Francisco Pérez-Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "Currency Crises and Political Factors: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2004-04, FEDEA.
    9. Begović, Selena & Adnett, Nick & Pugh, Geoff, 2016. "An investigation into the credibility of currency board arrangements in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bulgaria," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 787-799.
    10. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Francisco Pérez-Bermejo, 2008. "Political and Institutional Factors in Regime Changes in the ERM: An Application of Duration Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(8), pages 1049-1077, August.
    11. A. Morales-Zumaquero & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2008. "Macroeconomic instability in the European monetary system?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 965-983.
    12. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 337-352.
    13. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2017. "Heterogeneity in the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from EMU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 470-486.
    14. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“Short-run and long-run effects of public debt on economic performance: Evidence from EMU countries”," IREA Working Papers 201522, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    15. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2015. "Detection of Implicit Fluctuation Bands in The European Union Countries," Working Papers 15-09, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    16. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2001-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmen Arias). General contact details of provider: http://www.fedea.net .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.