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Political and institutional factors in regime change in the ERM: An application of duration analysis

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    (FEDEA and Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Francisco Pérez-Bermejo

    (KPMG-Spain)

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target-zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The estimations are based on quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete history of the European Monetary System. Our results suggest that both economic and political factors are important determinants of the ERM currency policies. Concerning economic factors, the money supply, the real exchange rate, the interest in Germany and the central parity deviation would have negatively affected the duration of a given central parity, while credibility and the price level in Germany would have positively influenced such duration. Regarding political variables, elections, central bank independence and left-wing administrations would have increased the probability of maintaining the current regime, while unstable governments would have been associated with more frequent regime changes. Moreover, we show how the political augmented model outperforms, both in terms of explanatory power and goodness of fit, the model which just incorporates pure economic determinants.

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Paper provided by Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales in its series Working Papers with number 07-05.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:0705
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  1. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernado Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," Working Papers 97-24, FEDEA.
  2. Jacquemin, Alexis & Sapir, Andre, 1996. "Is European Hard Core Credible? A Statistical Analysis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 105-17.
  3. Bruce Mizrach, 1993. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Research Paper 9302, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 223-265, April.
  5. Cukierman Alex, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, And Independance: Theory And Evidence," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 10, December.
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  8. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, March.
  9. Bussiere, Matthieu & Mulder, Christian, 2000. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 309-30, October.
  10. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287.
  11. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
  12. Alun H. Thomas, 1994. "Expected Devaluation and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 262-285, June.
  13. McCloughan, Patrick & Stone, Ian, 1998. "Life duration of foreign multinational subsidiaries: Evidence from UK northern manufacturing industry 1970-93," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 719-747, November.
  14. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Otker, Inci & Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla, 1997. "Speculative attacks and macroeconomic fundamentals: evidence from some European currencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 847-860, April.
  16. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, June.
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