Political and institutional factors in regime change in the ERM: An application of duration analysis
This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target-zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The estimations are based on quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete history of the European Monetary System. Our results suggest that both economic and political factors are important determinants of the ERM currency policies. Concerning economic factors, the money supply, the real exchange rate, the interest in Germany and the central parity deviation would have negatively affected the duration of a given central parity, while credibility and the price level in Germany would have positively influenced such duration. Regarding political variables, elections, central bank independence and left-wing administrations would have increased the probability of maintaining the current regime, while unstable governments would have been associated with more frequent regime changes. Moreover, we show how the political augmented model outperforms, both in terms of explanatory power and goodness of fit, the model which just incorporates pure economic determinants.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alun H. Thomas, 1994. "Expected Devaluation and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 262-285, June.
- Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988.
"Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
- Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1986. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jacquemin, Alexis & Sapir, Andre, 1996. "Is European Hard Core Credible? A Statistical Analysis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 105-117.
- Jacquemin, Alexis & Sapir, André, 1995. "Is a European Hard Core Credible? A Statistical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- André Sapir & Alexis Jacquemin, 1996. "Is a European hard core credible? A statistical analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8168, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Bussiere, Matthieu & Mulder, Christian, 2000. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 309-330, October.
- Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 99/46, International Monetary Fund.
- Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 223-265, April.
- Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 1996. "Unemployment duration, benefit duration, and the business cycle," Estudios Económicos, Banco de España;Estudios Económicos Homepage, number 57.
- Bover, O. & Arellano, M. & Bentolila, S., 1997. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration, and the Business Cycle," Papers 9717, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bentolila, Samuel & Bover, Olympia, 1998. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1840, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Otker, Inci & Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla, 1997. "Speculative attacks and macroeconomic fundamentals: evidence from some European currencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 847-860, April.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mizrach, Bruce, 1995. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-657, October.
- Bruce Mizrach, 1993. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Research Paper 9302, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- McCloughan, Patrick & Stone, Ian, 1998. "Life duration of foreign multinational subsidiaries: Evidence from UK northern manufacturing industry 1970-93," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 719-747, November.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, July.
- Cukierman Alex, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, And Independance: Theory And Evidence," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, December.
- Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, July.
- Frieden, Jeffry A., 2002. "Real Sources of European Currency Policy: Sectoral Interests and European Monetary Integration," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 831-860, September.
- Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando, 2001. "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 451-473, March.
- Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernado Fernández-Rodríguez, "undated". "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," Working Papers 97-24, FEDEA.
- Óscar Bajo Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez, 2000. "Asymmetry In The Ems: New Evidence Based On Non-Linear Forecasts," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 0001, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
- Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287.
- Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 2001-04, FEDEA.
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:0705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jose L. Torres)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.