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Political Cycles in a Small Open Economy and the Effect of Economic Integration: Evidence from Cyprus

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  • Georgios Efthyvoulou

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

This paper examines whether partisan politics and opportunistic government behavior generate political cycles in a small open economy, and, if so, whether such effects survive under increased economic integration. We discuss evidence drawn from Cyprus for the period 1978-2006. The empirical analysis extends the work of Alesina et al. (1997) to accommodate the special features of the Cypriot economy in a controlled environment era and follows a more technical econometric approach to ensure that our estimations will not draw misleading inferences. The results are in line with the rational partisan model and are similar to the ones obtained for other countries. On the other hand, the findings for Cyprus support also the existence of an electoral cycle in fiscal policy and reject the one in monetary policy. We argue that the unique politico-economic profile of a country is crucial for the empirical success of different theories. Furthermore, we find that the reported effects do not persist in the run-u to EU accession and ERM II participation. The implementation of several structural reforms and the Maastricht criteria seem to affect governments' ability to influence the domestic economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2008. "Political Cycles in a Small Open Economy and the Effect of Economic Integration: Evidence from Cyprus," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0808, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0808
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Ademmer, Esther & Dreher, Ferdinand, 2014. "Institutional constraints to political budget cycles in the enlarged EU," Kiel Working Papers 1964, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    4. Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2012. "Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 295-327, December.
    5. Bove, Vincenzo & Efthyvoulou, Georgios & Navas, Antonio, 2017. "Political cycles in public expenditure: butter vs guns," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 582-604.
    6. repec:zbw:rwirep:0094 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. J. Stephen Ferris, 2010. "Fiscal Policy from a Public Choice Perspective," Carleton Economic Papers 10-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    8. Linda G. Veiga & Georgios Efthyvoulou & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2018. "Political Budget Cycles: Conditioning Factors and New Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 21/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. Abdul Ganiyu Iddrisu, 2023. "Election cycles and corruption perception in Africa," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 553-571, December.
    10. Björn Kauder & Manuela Krause & Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Electoral cycles in MPs’ salaries: evidence from the German states," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(4), pages 981-1000, August.
    11. Konstantinos Konstantakis & Theofanis Papageorgiou & Panayotis Michaelides & Efthymios Tsionas, 2015. "Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013)," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-998, November.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Does Government Ideology Matter in Monetary Policy? – A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0094, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    14. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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