IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article

Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006

  • Niklas Potrafke

    ()

This paper examines whether electoral motives and government ideology influence short-term economic performance. I employ data on annual GDP growth in 21 OECD countries over the 1951-2006 period and provide a battery of empirical tests. In countries with two-party systems GDP growth is boosted before elections and, under leftwing governments, in the first two years of a legislative period. These findings indicate that political cycles are more prevalent in two-party systems because voters can clearly punish or reward political parties for governmental performance. My findings imply that we need more elaborate theories of how government ideology and electoral motives influence short-term economic performance.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-010-9695-5
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 150 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 155-179

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:150:y:2012:i:1:p:155-179
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Potrafke, Niklas, 2010. "Does government ideology influence deregulation of product markets? Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Munich Reprints in Economics 19284, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. John Cogan & Tobias Cwik & John Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2009. "New Keynesian Versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers," Discussion Papers 08-030, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  3. Persson, T. & Tabellini, G., 1993. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth," Papers 537, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Mechtel, Mario & Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Political Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies," MPRA Paper 14270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  7. Bourlès, R. & Cette, G. & Lopez, J. & Mairesse, J. & Nicoletti, G., 2010. "Do product market regulations in upstream sectors curb productivity growth? Panel data evidence for OECD countries," Working papers 283, Banque de France.
  8. Axel Dreher, 2002. "Does Globalization Affect Growth?," Development and Comp Systems 0210004, EconWPA, revised 04 Feb 2003.
  9. Guido Tabellini, 2004. "The Role of the State in Economic Development," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000720, UCLA Department of Economics.
  10. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides, 2008. "Fiscal policy, rent seeking, and growth under electoral uncertainty: theory and evidence from the OECD," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1375-1405, November.
  11. Peter Bernholz, 2000. "Democracy and capitalism: Are they compatible in the long-run?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 3-16.
  12. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Jonsson, Bengt, 2000. "International comparisons of health expenditure: Theory, data and econometric analysis," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 11-53 Elsevier.
  13. Linda Veiga & Francisco Veiga, 2004. "Political business cycles at the municipal level," ERSA conference papers ersa04p427, European Regional Science Association.
  14. Andrew C. Caplin & Daniel F. Spulber, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," NBER Working Papers 2311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Jon Faust & John S. Irons, 1996. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 572, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Siebert, Horst, 1997. "Labor market rigidities and unemployment in Europe," Kiel Working Papers 787, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  17. J. Kluve & H. Lehmann & C. M. Schmidt, 2007. "Disentangling Treatment Effects of Active Labor Market Policies: The Role of Labor Force Status Sequences," Working Papers 620, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  18. Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Does government ideology influence political alignment with the U.S.? An empirical analysis of voting in the UN General Assembly," Munich Reprints in Economics 19285, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  19. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  20. Christian Bjørnskov, 2005. "Does Political Ideology Affect Economic Growth?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 133-146, April.
  21. Hansen, Paul & King, Alan, 1998. "Health care expenditure and GDP: panel data unit root test results--comment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-381, June.
  22. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
  23. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  24. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1991. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549, 07.
  26. Friedrich Breyer & Andreas Haufler, 2000. "Health Care Reform: Separating Insurance from Income Redistribution," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 205, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  27. Potrafke, Niklas, 2010. "Labor market deregulation and globalization: Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Munich Reprints in Economics 19282, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  28. Sanz, Ismael & Velazquez, Francisco J., 2007. "The role of ageing in the growth of government and social welfare spending in the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 917-931, December.
  29. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  30. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis, 2005. "Health care expenditure and GDP: Are they broken stationary?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 839-854, September.
  31. Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "‘General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  32. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Inequality, Growth, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 7038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. J. Stephen Ferris & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Does the expectation or realization of a federal election precipitate Canadian output growth?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(1), pages 107-132, February.
  34. Jose Tavares, 2000. "Does Right or Left Matter? Cabinets, Credibility and Fiscal Adjustments," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1548, Econometric Society.
  35. Hitiris, Theo & Posnett, John, 1992. "The determinants and effects of health expenditure in developed countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 173-181, August.
  36. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
  37. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Heinrich Ursprung, 2006. "The Impact of Globalization on the Composition of Government Expenditures: Evidence from Panel Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 1755, CESifo Group Munich.
  38. Kittel, Bernhard & Obinger, Herbert, 2002. "Political parties, institutions, and the dynamics of social expenditure in times of austerity," MPIfG Discussion Paper 02/1, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
  39. Aidt, T.S. & Veiga, F.J. & Veiga, L.G., 2009. "Election Results and Opportunistic Policies: A New Test of the Rational Political Business Cycle Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0934, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  40. Rafael E. De Hoyos & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2006. "Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(4), pages 482-496, December.
  41. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(1), pages 155-174, 01.
  42. Cameron A. Shelton, 2007. "The Size and Composition of Government Expenditure," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2007-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  43. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
  44. Breyer, Friedrich, 1995. "The Political Economy of Rationing in Social Health Insurance," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 137-48, May.
  45. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "An Empirical Study of Politico-Economic Interaction in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 174-83, May.
  46. Edin, Per-Anders & Ohlsson, Henry, 1991. "Political determinants of budget deficits: Coalition effects versus minority effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1597-1603, December.
  47. Nadim Ahmad & François Lequiller & Pascal Marianna & Dirk Pilat & Paul Schreyer & Anita Wölfl, 2003. "Comparing Labour Productivity Growth in the OECD Area: The Role of Measurement," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2003/14, OECD Publishing.
  48. DE DONDER, Philippe & HINDRIKS, Jean, 2006. "Equilibrium social insurance with policy-motivated parties," CORE Discussion Papers 2006033, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  49. Nollen, Stanley D & Iglarsh, Harvey J, 1990. "Explanations of Protectionism in International Trade Votes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 137-53, August.
  50. J. Ferris, 2008. "Electoral politics and monetary policy: does the Bank of Canada contribute to a political business cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 449-468, June.
  51. Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 1997. "Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 91(2), pages 179-97, April.
  52. Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political Ideology and Economic Freedom Across Canadian Provinces," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(2), pages 143-166.
  53. Christina Schneider, 2010. "Fighting with one hand tied behind the back: political budget cycles in the West German states," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 125-150, January.
  54. Heckelman, Jac C, 2002. "Electoral Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: The Evidence from Canada," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 113(1-2), pages 179-89, October.
  55. Batool, Irem & Sieg, Gernot, 2009. "Bread, peace and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Economics Department Working Paper Series 3, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
  56. Peter Calcagno & Monica Escaleras, 2007. "Party alternation, divided government, and fiscal performance within US States," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 111-128, February.
  57. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schneider, Hilmar, 2006. "Active labor market policy in Germany--Is there a successful policy strategy?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-430, May.
  58. Helmut Herwartz & Bernd Theilen, 2003. "The determinants of health care expenditure: testing pooling restrictions in small samples," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 113-124.
  59. J-C.Asselain & B.Blancheton, 2005. "Dynamique de l'ouverture internationale. Paradoxes, enjeux, éléments d'interprétation à partir du cas de la France," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 32, pages 49-179, January.
  60. Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  61. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Jonsson, Bengt, 1991. "Conversion factor instability in international comparisons of health care expenditure," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 227-234, July.
  62. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor, 1996. "Does Inflation Matter for Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  63. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944.
  64. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
  65. Axel Dreher, 2005. "Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a new Index of Globalization," TWI Research Paper Series 6, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universit�t Konstanz.
  66. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  67. Cremer, Helmuth & De Donder, Philippe & Gahvari, Firouz, 2008. "Political competition within and between parties: An application to environmental policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 532-547, April.
  68. Galor, O. & Tsiddon, D., 1996. "Technological Progress, Mobility and Economic Growth," Papers 13-96, Tel Aviv.
  69. Shelton, Cameron A., 2007. "The size and composition of government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(11-12), pages 2230-2260, December.
  70. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  71. Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2004. "Voting and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers in Economics 144, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 05 Oct 2004.
  72. Martial Foucault & Thierry Madies & Sonia Paty, 2008. "Public spending interactions and local politics. Empirical evidence from French municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 57-80, October.
  73. Jac C. Heckelman, 2002. "Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycles: theory and some evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 568-585, August.
  74. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
  75. José Bercoff & Osvaldo Meloni, 2009. "Federal budget allocation in an emergent democracy: evidence from Argentina," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 65-83, January.
  76. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
  77. Drazen, Allan & Eslava, Marcela, 2010. "Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 39-52, May.
  78. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  79. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
  80. Sergio Sakurai & Naercio Menezes-Filho, 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 301-314, October.
  81. Parkin, David & McGuire, Alistair & Yule, Brian, 1987. "Aggregate health care expenditures and national income : Is health care a luxury good?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 109-127, June.
  82. Antoninis, M. & Tsakloglou, P., 1997. "On the Distributional Impact of Public Education: Evidence from Greece," DEOS Working Papers 97-01, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  83. Kåre Johansen & Ørjan Mydland & Bjarne Strøm, 2007. "Politics in wage setting: does government colour matter?," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 95-109, February.
  84. Giovanni S.F. Bruno, 2005. "Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel data models with a small number of individuals," KITeS Working Papers 165, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jun 2005.
  85. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," NBER Working Papers 13940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  86. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  87. Potrafke, Niklas, 2010. "The growth of public health expenditures in OECD countries: Do government ideology and electoral motives matter?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 797-810, December.
  88. Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2011. "Politics and privatization in Central and Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(2), pages 201-230, 04.
  89. Tony Culyer, 1989. "Cost-containment in Europe," Working Papers 062chedp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
  90. Shi, Min & Svensson, Jakob, 2006. "Political budget cycles: Do they differ across countries and why?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1367-1389, September.
  91. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2010. "Do Elections Affect the Composition of Fiscal Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2908, CESifo Group Munich.
  92. James Gwartney & Randal Holcombe & Robert Lawson, 1998. "The Scope of Government and the Wealth of Nations," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 163-190, Fall.
  93. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  94. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
  95. James M. Poterba, 1994. "Government Intervention in the Markets for Education and Health Care: How and Why?," NBER Working Papers 4916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  96. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
  97. Jewell, Todd & Lee, Junsoo & Tieslau, Margie & Strazicich, Mark C., 2003. "Stationarity of health expenditures and GDP: evidence from panel unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 313-323, March.
  98. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, 02.
  99. Patrick Laurency & Dirk Schindler, 2010. "Why Green Parties Should Fear Successful International Climate Agreements," TWI Research Paper Series 56, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universit�t Konstanz.
  100. Hansen, Paul & King, Alan, 1996. "The determinants of health care expenditure: A cointegration approach," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 127-137, February.
  101. Wacziarg, Romain & Welch, Karen Horn, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," Research Papers 1826, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  102. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
  103. Niklas Potrafke, 2010. "Ideology and cultural policy," TWI Research Paper Series 49, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universit�t Konstanz.
  104. Price, Simon, 1997. "Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 407-27, September.
  105. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Lothgren, Mickael, 2000. "On stationarity and cointegration of international health expenditure and GDP," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 461-475, July.
  106. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
  107. Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Did globalization restrict partisan politics? An empirical evaluation of social expenditures in a panel of OECD countries," Munich Reprints in Economics 19286, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  108. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: a Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," Working Papers 9912, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 1999.
  109. Gemmell, Norman & Kneller, Richard & Sanz, Ismael, 2008. "Foreign investment, international trade and the size and structure of public expenditures," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 151-171, March.
  110. Frees, Edward W., 1995. "Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 393-414, October.
  111. Horst Siebert, 1997. "Labor Market Rigidities: At the Root of Unemployment in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 37-54, Summer.
  112. Pushan Dutt & Devashish Mitra, 2005. "Political Ideology and Endogenous Trade Policy: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 59-72, February.
  113. Weingast, Barry R. & Wittman, Donald, 2008. "The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199548477, May.
  114. J. Stephen Ferris & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2009. "Does the Risk or Realization of a Federal Election Precipitate Canadian Output Growth? – revised version: Does the Expectation or Realization of a Federal Election Precipitate Canadian Output Growth?," Carleton Economic Papers 09-11, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
  115. Belke, Ansgar, 2000. "Partisan Political Business Cycles in the German Labour Market? Empirical Tests in the Light of the Lucas-Critique," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(3-4), pages 225-83, September.
  116. Alt, James E. & Lassen, David Dreyer, 2006. "Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1403-1439, August.
  117. Wagner, Richard E, 1977. "Economic Manipulation for Political Profit: Macroeconomic Consequences and Constitutional Implications," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 395-410.
  118. Laszlo Goerke & Markus Pannenberg & Heinrich Ursprung, 2010. "A positive theory of the earnings relationship of unemployment benefits," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 137-163, October.
  119. Bjørnskov, Christian, 2008. "The growth-inequality association: Government ideology matters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 300-308, October.
  120. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  121. Roland Füss & Michael Bechtel, 2008. "Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 131-150, June.
  122. Jerry Tempelman, 2007. "A commentary on “Does the Fed contribute to a political business cycle?”," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 433-436, September.
  123. Douglas Nelson, 1989. "The Political Economy Of Trade Policy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 301-314, November.
  124. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
  125. Rafael Lalive & JanC. vanOurs & Josef Zweimüller, 2008. "The Impact of Active Labour Market Programmes on The Duration of Unemployment in Switzerland," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(525), pages 235-257, 01.
  126. Neil Foster, 2008. "The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Economic Growth: Evidence from a Quantile Regression Analysis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 543-567, November.
  127. de Haan, Jakob & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 1994. "Political and Institutional Determinants of Fiscal Policy in the European Community," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 80(1-2), pages 157-72, July.
  128. Potrafke, Niklas, 2011. "Public Expenditures on Education and Cultural Affairs in the West German States: Does Government Ideology Influence the Budget Composition?," Munich Reprints in Economics 19277, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  129. Sergio Sakurai & Naercio Menezes-Filho, 2011. "Opportunistic and partisan election cycles in Brazil: new evidence at the municipal level," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 233-247, July.
  130. Ng, Serena, 2006. "Testing Cross-Section Correlation in Panel Data Using Spacings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 12-23, January.
  131. Germà Bel & Ferran Elias-Moreno, 2009. "Institutional Determinants of Military Spending," IREA Working Papers 200922, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2009.
  132. Kevin Grier, 2008. "US presidential elections and real GDP growth, 1961–2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 337-352, June.
  133. Sarah Voitchovsky, 2005. "Does the Profile of Income Inequality Matter for Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 273-296, 09.
  134. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  135. John Patty & Roberto Weber, 2007. "Letting the good times roll: A theory of voter inference and experimental evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 293-310, March.
  136. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
  137. Denzau, Arthur T & North, Douglass C, 1994. "Shared Mental Models: Ideologies and Institutions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 3-31.
  138. Reinhart, Vincent Raymond, 1999. "Death and taxes: their implications for endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 339-345, March.
  139. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May.
  140. Sakurai, Sergio N. & Menezes, Naercio A., 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Insper Working Papers wpe_117, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  141. McCoskey, Suzanne K. & Selden, Thomas M., 1998. "Health care expenditures and GDP: panel data unit root test results," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-376, June.
  142. Blais, Andre & Nadeau, Richard, 1992. "The Electoral Budget Cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 389-403, December.
  143. Markussen, Simen, 2008. "How the left prospers from prosperity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 329-342, June.
  144. Leif Helland, 2011. "Partisan conflicts and parliamentary dominance: the Norwegian political business cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 139-154, April.
  145. Ignacio Lago-Peñas & Santiago Lago-Peñas, 2009. "Does the nationalization of party systems affect the composition of public spending?," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 85-98, January.
  146. Sylwester, Kevin, 2002. "Can education expenditures reduce income inequality?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 43-52, February.
  147. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Sogaard, Jes & Andersson, Fredrik & Jonsson, Bengt, 1992. "An econometric analysis of health care expenditure: A cross-section study of the OECD countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-84, May.
  148. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  149. Hibbs, Douglas Jr., 1992. "Partisan theory after fifteen years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 361-373, October.
  150. Peter Boettke & Christopher Coyne & Peter Leeson, 2007. "Saving government failure theory from itself: recasting political economy from an Austrian perspective," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 127-143, June.
  151. Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753, june. pag.
  152. Behr, Andreas, 2003. "A comparison of dynamic panel data estimators: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to the investment function," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  153. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2006. "Examining structural breaks and growth rates in international health expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 877-890, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:150:y:2012:i:1:p:155-179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Rebekah McClure)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.