IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Political Cycles in Public Expenditure: Butter vs Guns

Listed author(s):
  • Vincenzo Bove

    ()

    (Department of Government, University of Essex)

  • Georgios Efthyvoulou

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield)

  • Antonio Navas

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield)

This paper presents a theoretical model and empirical evidence from 22 OECD countries to highlight how governments may use the tradeoff between social and military expenditure to advance their electoral and partisan objectives. Three basic results emerge. First, governments tend to bias outlays towards social expenditure and away from military expenditure at election times. Second, the strength of this cycle is smaller when we exclude countries involved in conflict, where national security plays an important role on voter choice. Third, while certain categories of social expenditure are higher during left administrations, military expenditure is higher during right administrations.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/economics/research/serps/articles/2013_016.html
File Function: Updated version, August 2014
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2013016.

as
in new window

Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2013016
Contact details of provider: Postal:
9 Mappin Street, SHEFFIELD, S1 4DT

Phone: +44 114 222 3399
Fax: + 44 (0)114 222 3458
Web page: http://www.shef.ac.uk/economics
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Niklas Potrafke, 2010. "Does government ideology influence budget composition? Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2010-16, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  2. Alejandro Saporiti & Jorge Streb, 2008. "Separation of powers and political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 329-345, October.
  3. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
  4. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
  5. Wlezien, Christopher, 1996. "Dynamics of Representation: The Case of US Spending on Defence," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(01), pages 81-103, January.
  6. Rosenberg, Jacob, 1992. "Rationality and the Political Business Cycle: The Case of Local Government," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 71-81, January.
  7. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Heinrich W. Ursprung, 2006. "The impact of globalization on the composition of government expenditures: Evidence from panel data," KOF Working papers 06-141, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  8. Reid, Bradford G, 1998. "Endogenous Elections, Electoral Budget Cycles and Canadian Provincial Governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 97(1-2), pages 35-48, October.
  9. J Paul Dunne & Sam Perlo-Freeman & Ron P Smith, 2008. "Determining Military Expenditures: Arms Races and Spill-Over Effects in Cross-Section and Panel Data," Discussion Papers 0801, British University in Egypt, Faulty of Business Administration, Economics and Political Science.
  10. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2012. "Do elections affect the composition of fiscal policy in developed, established democracies?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 325-362, April.
  11. Shi, Min & Svensson, Jakob, 2006. "Political budget cycles: Do they differ across countries and why?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1367-1389, September.
  12. von-Hagen, Jurgen, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Performance in the European Union and Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(1), pages 25-60, March.
  13. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2006. "Military expenditure, threats, and growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 129-155.
  14. Garrett, Geoffrey, 1995. "Capital mobility, trade, and the domestic politics of economic policy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(04), pages 657-687, September.
  15. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(4), pages 663-688.
  16. Hendrik Dalen & Otto Swank, 1996. "Government spending cycles: Ideological or opportunistic?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 89(1), pages 183-200, October.
  17. R Blundell & Steven Bond, "undated". "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  18. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2003. "Domestic political and external security determinants of the demand for greek military expenditure," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 437-445.
  19. Schultz, Kenneth A., 1995. "The Politics of the Political Business Cycle," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 79-99, January.
  20. Axel Dreher, 2002. "Does Globalization Affect Growth?," Development and Comp Systems 0210004, EconWPA, revised 04 Feb 2003.
  21. Clémence Vergne, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," Post-Print hal-00368509, HAL.
  22. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1986. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2004. "Political Business Cycles at the Municipal Level," NIPE Working Papers 4/2004, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  24. Vincenzo Galasso, 2014. "The role of political partisanship during economic crises," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 143-165, January.
  25. Schuknecht, Ludger, 1998. "Fiscal policy cycles and public expenditure in developing countries," WTO Staff Working Papers ERAD-98-06, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  26. Herwartz, Helmut & Theilen, Bernd, 2014. "Partisan influence on social spending under market integration, fiscal pressure and institutional change," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 409-424.
  27. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà & Elias, Ferran, 2012. "Institutional determinants of military spending," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-290.
  28. Drazen, Allan & Eslava, Marcela, 2010. "Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 39-52, May.
  29. Lindbeck, Assar, 1976. "Stabilization Policy in Open Economies with Endogenous Politicians," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 1-19, May.
  30. Alberto Alesina, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-678.
  31. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
  32. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944.
  33. Meinhard, S. & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "The Globalization-Welfare State Nexus Reconsidered," Munich Reprints in Economics 19212, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  34. Kenneth Rogoff, 1987. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2012. "Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 295-327, December.
  36. Axel Dreher, 2005. "Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a new Index of Globalization," TWI Research Paper Series 6, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universit�t Konstanz.
  37. Erdal Karagol & Aziz Turhan, 2008. "External Debt, Defence Expenditures And Political Business Cycles In Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 217-224.
  38. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
  39. Christina Schneider, 2010. "Fighting with one hand tied behind the back: political budget cycles in the West German states," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 125-150, January.
  40. Todd Sandler & James C. Murdoch, 2000. "On sharing NATO defence burdens in the 1990s and beyond," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 297-327, September.
  41. Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2008. "The Demand For Military Expenditure: Evidence From The Eu15 (1961-2005)," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 273-292.
  42. von Hagen, Jürgen, 2005. "Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Performance in the EU and Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 5330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Vincenzo Bove & Jennifer Brauner, 2011. "The Demand for Military Expenditure in Authoritarian Regimes," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1106, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  44. J Paul Dunne & Samuel Perlo-Freeman & Ron P Smith, 2007. "The Demand for Military Expenditure in Developing Countries: Hostility versus Capability," Working Papers 0707, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
  45. Blais, Andre & Nadeau, Richard, 1992. "The Electoral Budget Cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 389-403, December.
  46. Raul Caruso, 2010. "Butter, Guns And Ice-Cream Theory And Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 269-283.
  47. Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2008. "Political Cycles in a Small Open Economy and the Effect of Economic Integration: Evidence from Cyprus," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0808, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  48. Roubini, Nouriel & Alesina, Alberto, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Scholarly Articles 4553025, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  49. W. J. Henisz, 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, 03.
  50. Vincenzo Bove & Elisa Cavatorta, 2012. "From Conscription To Volunteers: Budget Shares In Nato Defence Spending," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 273-288, February.
  51. Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Did globalization restrict partisan politics? An empirical evaluation of social expenditures in a panel of OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 105-124, July.
  52. Smith, Ronald P., 1980. "Military expenditure and investment in OECD countries, 1954-1973," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 19-32, March.
  53. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2010. "Do Elections Affect the Composition of Fiscal Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2908, CESifo Group Munich.
  54. Jeroen Klomp & Jakob Haan, 2013. "Political budget cycles and election outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 245-267, October.
  55. John Paul Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2012. "Defence Spending And Economic Growth In The Eu15," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 537-548, December.
  56. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  57. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
  58. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  59. J Paul Dunne & Sam Perlo-Freeman & Ron P Smith, 2009. "Determining Military Expenditures: Arms Races and Spill-Over Effects in Cross-Section and Panel Data," Working Papers 0901, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
  60. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  61. Kittel, Bernhard & Obinger, Herbert, 2002. "Political parties, institutions, and the dynamics of social expenditure in times of austerity," MPIfG Discussion Paper 02/1, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2013016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jacob Holmes)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.