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The Growth in Military Expenditure in Germany 1951-2011: Did Parties Matter?

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  • Björn Kauder
  • Niklas Potrafke

Abstract

We examine whether government ideology was correlated with the growth in military expenditure in Germany over the period 1951-2011. By using various measures of government ideology, the results do not show any effect. The exception is an ideology measure based on the Comparative Manifesto Project (Left-Right scale): using this measure, the results show that the growth in military expenditure increased by about 2.4 percentage points, when the ideology variable (right-wing) increased by one standard deviation. This effect, however, is based on observations until the early 1960s and cannot be generalized. The major political parties agreed on how to evaluate international risks and threats. Government ideology retired to the background. We conjecture that the consensus among the major parties will persist – even if military spending needs to be increased in response to new international risks and threats.

Suggested Citation

  • Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke, 2015. "The Growth in Military Expenditure in Germany 1951-2011: Did Parties Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5337, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5337
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Alesina, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 651-678.
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    Cited by:

    1. Manuela Krause & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "The Real Estate Transfer Tax and Government Ideology: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 76(1), pages 100-120.
    2. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    3. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Wolfgang Scherf & Carolin Dresselhaus & Thomas Schäfer & Kunka Petkova & Alfons J. Weichenrieder & Reiner Holznagel & Jens Lemmer & Manuela Krause & Niklas Potrafke & Alfons Weic, 2017. "Stagnierende Wohneigentumsquote, Share Deals: Wie sollte die Grunderwerbsteuer reformiert werden?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(21), pages 03-24, November.
    4. Oliver Pamp & Florian Dendorfer & Paul W. Thurner, 2018. "Arm your friends and save on defense? The impact of arms exports on military expenditures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 165-187, October.
    5. Langlotz, Sarah & Potrafke, Niklas, 2019. "Does development aid increase military expenditure?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 735-757.
    6. Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "Dragnet-Controls and Government Ideology," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 485-501, July.
    7. Johannes Blum & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "Does a Change of Government Influence Compliance with International Agreements? Empirical Evidence for the NATO Two Percent Target," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 743-761, October.
    8. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Defending election victory by attacking company revenues: The impact of elections on the international defense industry," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Christos Kollias & Suzanna Maria Paleologou & Panayiotis Tzeremes & Nickolaos Tzeremes, 2018. "The demand for military spending in Latin American countries," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Saba Charles Shaaba & Ngepah Nicholas, 2020. "Military expenditure and security outcome convergence in African regional economic communities: evidence from the convergence club algorithm," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 1-28, February.
    11. Bove, Vincenzo & Efthyvoulou, Georgios & Navas, Antonio, 2017. "Political cycles in public expenditure: butter vs guns," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 582-604.
    12. Johannes Blum & Niklas Potrafke, 2019. "Internationale Abkommen und Regierungswechsel: Evidenz zum NATO-Zwei-Prozent-Ziel," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 18-21, February.
    13. Buts Caroline & Bois Cind Du & Raes Steffi, 2017. "Political Cycles in Military Deployment," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 1-7, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General

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