Timing Is All: Elections and the Duration of United States Business Cycles
This paper presents a new method for empirically testing predictions of various political business cycle theories by using duration analysis. The authors estimate the effect of presidential elections and their outcomes on the likelihood of the occurrence of business-cycle turning points in the United States for the period from 1855 to the present as well as for subperiods representing the post-World War I and post-World War II eras. They find significant evidence that political events increase the likelihood of the end of both expansions and contractions holding constant the effect of duration dependence. Copyright 1996 by Ohio State University Press.
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Volume (Year): 28 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
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