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Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results

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  • MICHAEL BERLEMANN
  • GUNTHER MARKWARDT

Abstract

The empirical evidence toward rational partisan theory of business cycles is mixed and thus inconclusive. This is due to the enormous heterogeneity of the existing empirical studies. Only a few of these test explicitly for the central theoretical innovation that post-electoral blips in economic activity depend on the degree of the electoral surprise. Using polling data we present empirical evidence in favor of rational partisan theory for a panel of OECD countries. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Berlemann & Gunther Markwardt, 2007. "Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1919-1945, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:8:p:1919-1945
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Hugo Oriola, 2025. "National elections and sub-national electoral cycles: Do strong fiscal rules matter in Europe?," Working Papers hal-05002552, HAL.
    2. Ferré, Montserrat & Manzano, Carolina, 2014. "Rational Partisan Theory with fiscal policy and an independent central bank," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-37.
    3. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schweickert & Marvin Jahn, 2025. "Political Business Cycles in Varieties of Capitalistic Systems," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 653-668, July.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    5. James Cooley, 2009. "Stock Market Returns and Partisan Political Business Cycles," Departmental Working Papers 0902, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    6. Marina Riem, 2016. "Corporate investment decisions under political uncertainty," ifo Working Paper Series 221, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2010. "Rational Partisan Theory, Uncertainty, And Spatial Voting: Evidence For The Bank Of England'S Mpc," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 151-179, July.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Does Government Ideology Matter in Monetary Policy? – A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0094, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Jan Kluge & Gunther Markwardt & Christian Thater, 2017. "Self-Preserving Leviathans Evidence from Local-Level Data," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 594-621, November.

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