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Partisan cycles and pre-electoral uncertainty

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  • Berlemann, Michael
  • Markwardt, Gunther

Abstract

Rational partisan theory of political business cycles suggests differences in inflation under left-wing and right-wing governments. It also suggests temporary post-electoral booms after election of left-wing governments and temporary recessions after election of right-wing ones. However, the core hypothesis that post-electoral booms and recessions depend upon the degree of pre-electoral uncertainty has rarely been tested. Using pre-electoral polling data, we provide empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of rational partisan cycles. We also show that - in line with most previous empirical studies - there is little evidence for partisan cycles under adaptive expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Berlemann, Michael & Markwardt, Gunther, 2003. "Partisan cycles and pre-electoral uncertainty," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 01/03, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0103
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    Cited by:

    1. Berlemann, Michael & Elzemann, Jorg, 2006. "Are expectations on inflation and election outcomes connected? An empirical analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 354-359, June.
    2. Akhmedov Akhmed, 2006. "Human Capital and Political Business Cycles," EERC Working Paper Series 06-02e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    3. Marcelin, Isaac & Stephen, Sheryl-Ann K. & Fanta, Fassil & Tecklezion, Mussie, 2019. "Political regimes, investment and electoral uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 580-599.
    4. Dopke, Jorg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Politics and the stock market: Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 925-943, December.
    5. Cameron Shelton, 2012. "The information content of elections and varieties of the partisan political business cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 209-240, January.
    6. Akhmed Akhmedov, 2006. "Human Capital and Political Business Cycles," Working Papers w0087, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    7. Akhmed Akhmedov, 2006. "Human Capital and Political Business Cycles," Working Papers w0087, New Economic School (NES).
    8. Akhmedov Akhmed, "undated". "Human capital and political business cycles," EERC Working Paper Series 03-213e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    partisan theory; political business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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