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Partisan Political Business Cycles in the German Labour Market? Empirical Tests in the Light of the Lucas-Critique

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  • Belke, Ansgar

Abstract

This paper focuses on alternative specifications of partisan political business cycles (Partisan Theory, Rational Partisan Theory and hysteresis-augmented RPT). It elaborates on analogies of the natural rate hypothesis underlying all specifications and the cointegration concept. Accordingly, problems of the specification of hypotheses, estimation and inference in a cointegrating framework with political interventions are treated. Super-exogeneity tests are shown to be equivalent to tests of the Lucas-critique and the RPT. Therefore, the concept of super-exogeneity is transferred to empirical tests of partisan cycles. By this, a new testing framework of partisan cycles is developed and applied to German labour market data. Copyright 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Belke, Ansgar, 2000. "Partisan Political Business Cycles in the German Labour Market? Empirical Tests in the Light of the Lucas-Critique," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(3-4), pages 225-283, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:104:y:2000:i:3-4:p:225-83
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    Cited by:

    1. Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "Economic Freedom and Government Ideology across the German States," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 433-449, March.
    2. Mario Mechtel & Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "Electoral cycles in active labor market policies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 181-194, July.
    3. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
    4. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2016. "On the Empirical Relevance of the Lucas Critique: the Case of Euro Area Money Demand," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 61-82.
    5. Berlemann, Michael & Markwardt, Gunther, 2003. "Partisan cycles and pre-electoral uncertainty," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 01/03, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Ademmer, Esther & Belke, Ansgar & Schweickert, Rainer, 2017. "The political economy of the impossible trinity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 103-123.
    7. Berlemann, Michael & Markwardt, Gunther, 2006. "Variable rational partisan cycles and electoral uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 874-886, December.
    8. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Is German domestic social policy politically controversial?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 393-418, December.
    9. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
    10. Dopke, Jorg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Politics and the stock market: Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 925-943, December.
    11. Mechtel, Mario & Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Political Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies," MPRA Paper 14270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Nobelpreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften 2004 an Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 248/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    13. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
    14. Kauder Björn & Larin Benjamin & Potrafke Niklas, 2014. "Was bringt uns die große Koalition?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 88-101, February.
    15. Cleomar Gomes da silva & Flavio V. Vieira, 2016. "Monetary policy decision making: the role of ideology, institutions and central bank independence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2051-2062.
    16. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Nuscheler, 2011. "The political economy of the German Lander deficits: weak governments meet strong finance ministers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2399-2415.

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