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The Demand for Labour and the Lucas Critique. Evidence from Norwegian Manufacturing

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    This paper uses neoclassical theory as a foundation for modelling labour demand in Norwegian manufacturing. Applying the Johansen (1988,1991) methodology, we obtain a single cointegrating vector between employment, production, relative factor prices, total factor productivity and the stock of real capital. Normalised on employment, the estimated long run elasticities are 1.37 (production), 0.32 (relative factor prices), 0.57 (total factor productivity) and 1.00 (the stock of real capital). Next, we develop a conditional labour demand model that exhibits parameter constancy. In addition to equilibrium correction effects, we find contemporaneous effects of production and relative factor prices. We cannot reject super exogeneity to be present in our labour demand equation. Hence, the evidence on labour demand in Norwegian manufacturing does not lend support to the Lucas critique.

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    File URL: http://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp256.pdf
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    Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 256.

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    Date of creation: Jun 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:256
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    9. Ray Barrell & Nigel Pain & Garry Young, 1996. "A cross-country comparison of the demand for labour in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 638-650, December.
    10. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
    12. Flaig, Gebhard & Steiner, Viktor, 1989. "Stability and Dynamic Properties of Labour Demand in West German Manufacturing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 395-412, November.
    13. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1991. "Labor Demand: What Do We Know? What Don't We Know?," NBER Working Papers 3890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Linear Quadratic Adjustment Cost Model and the Demand for Labour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S145-59, Suppl. De.
    15. Jenkinson, T J, 1986. "Testing Neo-Classical Theories of Labour Demand: An Application of Cointegration Techniques," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 241-51, August.
    16. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    17. Symons, James S V, 1985. "Relative Prices and the Demand for Labour in British Manufacturing," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 52(205), pages 37-49, February.
    18. Symons, J & Layard, R, 1984. "Neoclassical Demand for Labour Functions for Six Major Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376), pages 788-99, December.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    20. Kennan, John, 1979. "The Estimation of Partial Adjustment Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1441-55, November.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    22. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-44, December.
    23. Craine, Roger, 1973. "On the Service Flow from Labour," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(11), pages 39-46, January.
    24. Favero, C. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing The Lucas Critique: A Review," Economics Series Working Papers 99101, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    25. H. Peter Boswijk & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 1997. "Lagrance-multiplier tersts for weak exogeneity: a synthesis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 21-38.
    26. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    27. Nymoen, Ragnar, 1989. "Modelling Wages in the Small Open Economy: An Error-Correction Model of Norwegian Manufacturing Wages," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 239-58, August.
    28. Hendry, David F & Neale, Adrian J, 1988. "Interpreting Long-run Equilibrium Solutions in Conventional Macro Models: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 808-17, September.
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