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Politics and the Stock Market: Evidence from Germany

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Döpke, Jörg

Abstract

We analyze the interaction of stock market movements and politics in Germany. In contrast to the empirical evidence available for the U.S., we do not find that German stock market returns tend to be higher during liberal than during conservative governments. Also in contrast to results for the U.S., we find no evidence for an election cycle in German stock market returns. However, estimated popularity functions and VARs suggest that stock market returns have had an impact on the popularity of German governments. We find that this result is robust across different VAR specifications and time periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Politics and the Stock Market: Evidence from Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1203, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1203
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political business cycle; Stock market; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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