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Econometrics and Presidential Elections

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:10:y:1996:i:3:p:89-102
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.3.89
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.10.3.89
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, August.
    2. Stephen E. Haynes & Joe A. Stone, 1994. "Why Did Economic Models Falsely Predict A Bush Landslide In 1992?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 123-130, April.
    3. Fair, Ray C, 1982. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 322-325, May.
    4. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    5. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B: Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-167, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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