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Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

Three vote‐share equations are estimated and analyzed in this article, one for presidential elections, one for on‐term House elections, and one for midterm House elections. The sample period is 1916–2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The main conclusions are (1) there is strong evidence that the economy affects all three vote shares and in remarkably similar ways; (2) there is no evidence of any presidential coattail effects on the on‐term House elections; (3) there is positive serial correlation in the House vote, which likely reflects a positive incumbency effect for elected representatives; and (4) the presidential vote share has a negative effect on the next midterm House vote share, which is likely explained by a balance argument.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 55-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:53:y:2009:i:1:p:55-72
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00357.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grier, Kevin B & McGarrity, Joseph P, 2002. "Presidential Party, Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916-1996," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 110(1-2), pages 143-162, January.
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    5. D. R. Kiewiet & M. Udell, 1998. "Twenty‐five Years after Kramer: An Assessment of Economic Retrospective Voting based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 219-248, November.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Philippe Jacquart & John Antonakis, 2015. "When does charisma matter for top-level leaders? Effect of attributional ambiguity," Post-Print hal-02276710, HAL.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 2021. "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting: A Comment on Pástor and Veronesi (2020)," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2279, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2021.
    5. Gago Andrés & Carozzi Felipe & Bermejo Vicente J. & Abad Jose M., 2023. "Government Turnover and External Financial Assistance," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4655, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    6. Ray C. Fair, 2021. "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2279, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Livnat, Joshua & Rubin, Amir & Segal, Dan, 2025. "Divided we fall: Congressional cycles, the stock market and firm performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    8. repec:jpe:journl:1632 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Andreas Graefe & Kesten C Green & J Scott Armstrong, 2019. "Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, January.
    10. Di Benedetto, Andrea & Wieners, Claudia E. & Dijkstra, Henk A. & Stoof, Henk T.C., 2023. "Media preference increases polarization in an agent-based election model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 626(C).
    11. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, unemployment and French presidential elections [Vote, popularité, chômage et élections présidentielles françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480855, HAL.
    12. Ted Hayduk, 2022. "Association membership, election cycles, and political donation patterns," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 359-384, December.
    13. Graefe, Andreas, 2023. "Embrace the differences: Revisiting the PollyVote method of combining forecasts for U.S. presidential elections (2004 to 2020)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 170-177.
    14. Montalvo, José G. & Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros & Stumpf-Fétizon, Timothée, 2019. "Bayesian forecasting of electoral outcomes with new parties’ competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 52-70.

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