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Twenty‐five Years after Kramer: An Assessment of Economic Retrospective Voting based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment

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  • D. R. Kiewiet
  • M. Udell

Abstract

Several studies in economics have derived estimates of economic activity in the years prior to World War II that differ significantly from official statistics. In this paper we examine the possibility that the impact of economic retrospective voting upon congressional election outcomes has been at least partially obscured by shortcomings in the official data series. To that end we re‐estimate various specifications of the basic Kramer model with these revised measures of income and unemployment. Although the effect of changes in real per capita income does not depend much upon which particular income series we used, the observed impact of unemployment doubles in size when the new estimates of historical unemployment rates made by Romer (1986b) and by Darby (1976) are used. Although the evidence is less than definitive, the results of our analyses also lend credence to the proposition that economic conditions have a greater impact upon congressional voting in on‐year elections than in off years, and that the incumbent party is bound to suffer a midterm penalty.

Suggested Citation

  • D. R. Kiewiet & M. Udell, 1998. "Twenty‐five Years after Kramer: An Assessment of Economic Retrospective Voting based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 219-248, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:10:y:1998:i:3:p:219-248
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0343.00045
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    1. repec:kap:iaecre:v:12:y:2006:i:4:p:468-474 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. John S. Earle & Scott Gehlbach, 2003. "A Spoonful of Sugar: Privatization and Popular Support for Reform in the Czech Republic," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-32, March.
    3. Ali Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2006. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 77-105, October.
    4. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 55-72, January.
    6. Ray C. Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-share Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1602, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Ray Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2389, Yale School of Management, revised 18 Mar 2007.
    8. Jasny Johannes & Becker Tilman, 2020. "Refugees welcome, but not in my backyard? The impact of immigration on right-wing voting: evidence from Germany," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    9. David Mitchell & Keith Willett, 2006. "Local Economic Performance and Election Outcomes," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(2), pages 219-232, June.
    10. Findley, T. Scott, 2015. "Hyperbolic memory discounting and the political business cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 345-359.
    11. Ali Akarca & Dimitri Andrianacos, 2006. "Taxes, Transfers, and Voter Behavior in U.S. Midterm Elections," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(4), pages 468-474, November.

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