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Taxes, Transfers, and Voter Behavior in U.S. Midterm Elections

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  • Ali Akarca
  • Dimitri Andrianacos

Abstract

The effects of changes in per capita real GDP, real taxes and real government transfer payments on midterm congressional election outcomes during the 1946–2002 period are examined. Voters are found to take all of these, except taxes and transfers at the state and local government levels, into account in casting their ballots. However, the weights they place on each are found not to be the same. Consequently, the common practice of summarizing the economic conditions faced by voters through disposable income seems to be inappropriate. Also, omission of tax and transfer variables from the vote equation, and using vote swing rather than vote share as the dependent variable is found to result in underestimation of the coefficient of per capita GDP growth. Copyright IAES 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Akarca & Dimitri Andrianacos, 2006. "Taxes, Transfers, and Voter Behavior in U.S. Midterm Elections," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(4), pages 468-474, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:12:y:2006:i:4:p:468-474:10.1007/s11294-006-9041-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-006-9041-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. R. Kiewiet & M. Udell, 1998. "Twenty‐five Years after Kramer: An Assessment of Economic Retrospective Voting based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 219-248, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    congressional elections; economic voting; taxes; government transfers; D70;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General

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