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Inter-Election Vote Swings For The Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact Of Economic Performance And Other Factors

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  • Ali T. Akarca

    (University of Illinois at Chicago, United States)

Abstract

Inter-election vote swings for the AKP, the incumbent party in Turkey, during 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2011 elections are decomposed into parts attributable to economic conditions, strategic voting, cost of ruling, incumbency advantage, political realignment and other factors. For this purpose a vote equation, fitted to data covering twenty-seven National Assembly, Senate, and Provincial Council elections, held between 1950 and 2011 is used. The results show the pivotal role played by the economy on the political fortunes of incumbent parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "Inter-Election Vote Swings For The Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact Of Economic Performance And Other Factors," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 7-25, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:6:y:2011:i:3:p:7-25
    DOI: 10.12775/EQUIL2011.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 12 June 2011 Turkish parliamentary election," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(302), pages 53-74.
    2. Ali T. AKARCA, 2009. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 29 March 2009 Turkish local elections," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(276), pages 7-22.
    3. Ali T. Akarca, 2010. "Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-38.
    4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    5. Claudio Ferraz & Frederico Finan, 2008. "Exposing Corrupt Politicians: The Effects of Brazil's Publicly Released Audits on Electoral Outcomes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 703-745.
    6. Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-421, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali T. Akarca, 2014. "How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Ali T. Akarca, 2013. "Ten Million New Turkish Voters in 2011: Where they Come From? How They Voted? What It Means For The Future?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 133-160.
    3. Ali T. Akarca, 2015. "Modeling political performance of Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties in Turkey," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 49-69, January.
    4. Ali Akarca, 2018. "Political Determinants of Government Structure and Economic Performance in Turkey since 1950," Working Papers 1241, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    elections; Vote swing; Economic voting; Economic performance; AKP; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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