A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 12 June 2011 Turkish parliamentary election
The expected nationwide vote share of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the 12 June 2011 parliamentary election in Turkey is predicted based on historical patterns rather than poll data. For this purpose a vote equation developed by Akarca and Tansel (2006) and Akarca (2009) is used, after it is revised and updated. This model considers the credit or blame the government gets due to economic conditions, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of incumbency. It also takes into account strategic voting by the electorate to balance the power of the government. In the estimation of the equation, data pertaining to twenty-seven parliamentary and local administrations elections held between 1950 and 2009 is utilized. If history is any guide, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) should be expected to receive about 44 percent of the vote in the upcoming election.
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