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A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 12 June 2011 Turkish parliamentary election


  • Ali T. Akarca

    (University of Illinois at Chicago, Department of Economics)


The expected nationwide vote share of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the 12 June 2011 parliamentary election in Turkey is predicted based on historical patterns rather than poll data. For this purpose a vote equation developed by Akarca and Tansel (2006) and Akarca (2009) is used, after it is revised and updated. This model considers the credit or blame the government gets due to economic conditions, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of incumbency. It also takes into account strategic voting by the electorate to balance the power of the government. In the estimation of the equation, data pertaining to twenty-seven parliamentary and local administrations elections held between 1950 and 2009 is utilized. If history is any guide, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) should be expected to receive about 44 percent of the vote in the upcoming election.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 12 June 2011 Turkish parliamentary election," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(302), pages 53-74.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:26:y:2011:i:302:p:53-74

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Greenwood, Michael J, et al, 1991. "Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1382-1390, December.
    2. Darren Lubotsky, 2007. "Chutes or Ladders? A Longitudinal Analysis of Immigrant Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(5), pages 820-867, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali T. Akarca, 2013. "Ten Million New Turkish Voters in 2011: Where they Come From? How They Voted? What It Means For The Future?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 133-160.
    2. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2016. "Voter reaction to government incompetence and corruption related to the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(2), pages 309-335, May.
    3. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2012. "Turkish Voter Response to Government Incompetence and Corruption Related to the 1999 Earthquakes," Working Papers 2012/2, Turkish Economic Association.
    4. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "Inter-Election Vote Swings For The Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact Of Economic Performance And Other Factors," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 7-25, September.
    5. Ali T. Akarca, 2013. "Modeling Political Performance of Islamist and Islamist-Rooted Parties in Turkey," Working Papers 768, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2013.
    6. Harun Yuksel & Abdulkadir Civan, 2013. "The Impact of Economic Factors on the 2011 Turkish General Election," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 53-67.
    7. Ali T. Akarca, 2014. "How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, September.

    More about this item


    Elections; Voter behavior; Economic voting; Strategic voting; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior


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