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How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?

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  • Ali T. Akarca

    () (University of Illinois at Chicago, Department of Economics (mc 144), 601 S. Morgan Street, Chicago, Illinois 60607, USA)

Abstract

The outcome of the June 7, 2015 parliamentary election in Turkey is analyzed. In particular, the causes of the drop in the vote share of the ruling Justice and Development Party are identified, and their effects are measured with the help of a vote equation. This model is fitted to data covering the 1951-2014 period and considers the credit or blame the government gets due to economic conditions, the advantages and disadvantages of incumbency, political inertia, and realignments. It also takes into account strategic voting, which is caused by election thresholds and the electorate’s desire to balance the power of the government. A comparison of the prediction obtained from this equation with the actual realization is utilized to estimate the impact of the decision by the Peoples’ Democratic Party to participate in the election officially, rather than through independent candidates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali T. Akarca, 2014. "How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:tek:journl:v:3:y:2014:i:3:p:1-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 12 June 2011 Turkish parliamentary election," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(302), pages 53-74.
    2. Ali AKARCA & Cem BAŞLEVENT, 2009. "Inter-party vote movements in Turkey: The sources of AKP votes in 2007," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(285), pages 32-47.
    3. Baslevent, Cem & Akarca, Ali T., 2008. "Micro evidence on inter-party vote movements in turkey: Who voted for AKP in 2002?," MPRA Paper 11683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ali Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2006. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 77-105, October.
    5. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Ali T. AKARCA, 2009. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 29 March 2009 Turkish local elections," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(276), pages 7-22.
    7. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "Inter-Election Vote Swings For The Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact Of Economic Performance And Other Factors," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 7-25, September.
    8. Ali T. Akarca, 2010. "Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-38.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    10. Ali T. Akarca, 2013. "Modeling Political Performance of Islamist and Islamist-Rooted Parties in Turkey," Working Papers 768, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2013.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Voter behavior; economic voting; strategic voting; election forecasting; AKP; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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