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Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in “Arab Spring” Egypt

  • May Elsayyad

    (Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance)

  • Shima'a Hanafy

    ()

    (University of Marburg)

Registered author(s):

    This paper empirically studies the voting outcomes of Egypt’s first parliamentary elections after the Arab Spring. In light of the strong Islamist success in the polls, we explore the main determinants of Islamist vs. secular voting. We identify three dimensions that affect voting outcomes at the constituency level: the socio-economic profile, the economic structure and the electoral institutional framework. Our results show that education is negatively associated with Islamist voting. Interestingly, we find significant evidence which suggests that higher poverty levels are associated with a lower vote share for Islamist parties. Later voting stages in the sequential voting setup do not exhibit a bandwagon effect.

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    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/51-2012_hanafy.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
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    Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201251.

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    Length: 38 pages
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Forthcoming in
    Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201251
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Universitätsstraße 25, 35037 Marburg
    Phone: 06421/28-1722
    Fax: 06421/28-4858
    Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/
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    1. Robbert Maseland & André Hoorn, 2011. "Why Muslims like democracy yet have so little of it," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 481-496, June.
    2. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Democracy and Countries with Muslim Majorities: A Reply and Update," CESifo Working Paper Series 4039, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Charles Rowley & Nathanael Smith, 2009. "Islam’s democracy paradox: Muslims claim to like democracy, so why do they have so little?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 273-299, June.
    4. Ali T. Akarca, 2010. "Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-38.
    5. Fidrmuc, J., 1998. "Political Support for Reforms : Economics of Voting in Transition Countries," Discussion Paper 1998-98, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Marek Hanusch, 2013. "Islam and democracy: a response," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 315-321, March.
    7. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
    8. Kenneth Brown & Charles Zech, 1973. "Welfare effects of announcing election forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 117-123, March.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    10. Niklas Potrafke, 2010. "Islam and Democracy," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2010-10, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    11. Swank, O H & Eisinga, R, 1999. " Economic Outcomes and Voting Behaviour in a Multi-party System: An Application to the Netherlands," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 101(3-4), pages 195-213, December.
    12. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September.
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