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Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective

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  • Ali T. Akarca

Abstract

The outcome of the 29 March 2009 Turkish local administrations election is analyzed in light of economic voting literature, both from historical and geographical perspectives. First, the nationwide vote share of the incumbent party (AKP) is compared to what would be expected based on the patterns observed in the past twenty-six National Assembly, Senate, and Provincial Council elections held between 1951 and 2007. For this purpose a vote equation is estimated using aggregate nationwide time-series data. This equation takes into account the roles played by economic conditions, political inertia, incumbency factors, strategic voting by the electorate, and the political realignments. Second, inter-party vote movements between the 2007 parliamentary and the 2009 local administrations elections are analyzed, through systems of party vote equations, estimated separately for different regions of the country, using cross-provincial data. The results obtained show that the outcome of the 2009 election was predictable on the basis of historical patterns. The vote loses of the AKP is attributable mainly to two transitory factors: poor economic conditions prevailing at the time of the election and typical strategic-voting experienced in local elections. The party’s vote losses tended to be higher in the east than in the west and in provinces where its support is high than where it is low. The voters who deserted the AKP went to the DP, SP and DTP, in the mid-eastern and south-eastern Anatolia, and to the MHP and SP, in the rest of the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali T. Akarca, 2010. "Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-38.
  • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xiii:y:2010:i:3:p:3-38
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ali AKARCA & Cem BAŞLEVENT, 2009. "Inter-party vote movements in Turkey: The sources of AKP votes in 2007," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(285), pages 32-47.
    2. Baslevent, Cem & Akarca, Ali T., 2008. "Micro evidence on inter-party vote movements in turkey: Who voted for AKP in 2002?," MPRA Paper 11683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
    4. Ali Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2006. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 77-105, October.
    5. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-421, May.
    7. Ali T. AKARCA, 2009. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 29 March 2009 Turkish local elections," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(276), pages 7-22.
    8. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. May Elsayyad & Shima’a Hanafy, 2014. "Voting Islamist or voting secular? An empirical analysis of voting outcomes in Egypt’s “Arab Spring”," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 109-130, July.
    2. Ali T. Akarca, 2013. "Ten Million New Turkish Voters in 2011: Where they Come From? How They Voted? What It Means For The Future?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 133-160.
    3. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2016. "Voter reaction to government incompetence and corruption related to the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(2), pages 309-335, May.
    4. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2012. "Turkish Voter Response to Government Incompetence and Corruption Related to the 1999 Earthquakes," Working Papers 2012/2, Turkish Economic Association.
    5. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "Inter-Election Vote Swings For The Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact Of Economic Performance And Other Factors," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 7-25, September.
    6. Ali T. Akarca, 2013. "Modeling Political Performance of Islamist and Islamist-Rooted Parties in Turkey," Working Papers 768, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2013.
    7. May Elsayyad & Shima'a Hanafy, 2012. "Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in “Arab Spring” Egypt," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201251, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    8. Ali T. Akarca, 2014. "How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Voter behavior; Economic voting; Strategic voting; Political geography; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • R19 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Other

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