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A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 29 March 2009 Turkish local elections

Author

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  • Ali T. AKARCA

    (University of Illinois at Chicago)

Abstract

The expected nationwide vote share of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the March 29, 2009 Turkish local administrations election is predicted based on historical patterns rather than poll data. For this purpose a vote equation developed by Akarca and Tansel (2006) is used, after it is revised and updated. This model considers the credit or blame the government gets due to economic conditions, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of incumbency. It also takes into account strategic voting by the electorate to balance the power of the government, which is more pronounced in elections for local administrations. In the estimation of the equation, data pertaining to twenty-six parliamentary and local administrations elections held between 1950 and 2007 is utilized. If history is any guide, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) should be expected to receive about 40 percent of the vote in the coming election.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali T. AKARCA, 2009. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 29 March 2009 Turkish local elections," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(276), pages 7-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:24:y:2009:i:276:p:7-22
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "Inter-Election Vote Swings For The Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact Of Economic Performance And Other Factors," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 7-25, September.
    2. Ali T. Akarca, 2015. "Modeling political performance of Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties in Turkey," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 49-69, January.
    3. Toros, Emre, 2012. "Forecasting Turkish local elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 813-821.
    4. Toros, Emre, 2011. "Forecasting elections in Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1248-1258, October.
    5. Ali T. Akarca & Cem Baslevent, 2010. "Inter-party Vote Movements in Turkey: The Role of Economic Evaluations," Working Papers 509, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2010.
    6. Ali T. Akarca, 2017. "Economic Voting Under Single-Party and Coalition Governments: Evidence From The Turkish Case," Working Papers 1128, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 2017.
    7. Ali T. Akarca, 2010. "Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-38.
    8. Ali T. Akarca, 2014. "How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Voter behavior; Economic voting; Strategic voting; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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