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Inter-party Vote Movements in Turkey: The Role of Economic Evaluations

Author

Listed:
  • Ali T. Akarca

    (University of Illinois)

  • Cem Baslevent

Abstract

Using data drawn from a nationwide voter tendencies survey conducted shortly before the July 2007 parliamentary election in Turkey, inter-party vote movements during the 2002-2007 period are investigated with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as the focal point. A descriptive analysis relying on two and four-way partitions of the data set reveals that, in comparison to the relatively small group of ‘deserters’ from the party, the ‘newcomers’ to the AKP are younger, more female, more satisfied with the performance of the economy, and more likely to be pro-EU membership. The data also show that AKP supporters are less educated and less concerned about the threats to secularism than the rest of the voters. The key finding of the econometric work is that economic evaluations – especially retrospective ones – have a strong association with the party choice in the 2007 elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali T. Akarca & Cem Baslevent, 2010. "Inter-party Vote Movements in Turkey: The Role of Economic Evaluations," Working Papers 509, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:509
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ali Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2006. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 77-105, October.
    2. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Ali T. AKARCA, 2009. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 29 March 2009 Turkish local elections," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(276), pages 7-22.
    4. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2003. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of The 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results," Working Papers 0321, Economic Research Forum, revised 07 2003.
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