IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/met/wpaper/0401.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results

Author

Listed:
  • Ali T. Akarca
  • Aysit Tansel

    (Department of Economics, METU)

Abstract

1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election and the economic and political conditions surrounding it were utilized to study the relationship between the government’s economic performance and the vote shares of political parties. Turkish voters are found to be myopic, not looking back beyond the election year in assessing the government’s economic performance. A good performance is found to benefit the primary incumbent party at the expense of extremist opposition parties and a bad performance is found to benefit extremist opposition parties at the expense of the primary party in power. The junior party in a coalition government and the centrist opposition parties appear to be unaffected by the economic conditions. Evidence found is consistent with a strategic voting by the electorate, to diffuse power and/or to try parties and leaders that were not tried before or last tried a long time ago. These conclusions are essentially in conformity with the literature on other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2004. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results," ERC Working Papers 0401, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2004.
  • Handle: RePEc:met:wpaper:0401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erc.metu.edu.tr/en/system/files/menu/series04/0401.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2004
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alesina, Alberto & Londregan, John & Rosenthal, Howard, 1993. "A Model of the Political Economy of the United States," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(1), pages 12-33, March.
    2. Grier, Kevin B & McGarrity, Joseph P, 2002. "Presidential Party, Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916-1996," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 110(1-2), pages 143-162, January.
    3. Alesina, Alberto & Rosenthal, Howard, 1989. "Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 373-398, June.
    4. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    5. Richard C. K. Burdekin, 1988. "Economic Performance and the Determination of Presidential Elections in the U.S," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 32(2), pages 71-75, October.
    6. Peltzman, Sam, 1987. "Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 293-297, May.
    7. Fair, Ray C, 1982. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 322-325, May.
    8. Alesina, Alberto & Londregan, John & Rosenthal, Howard, 1996. "The 1992, 1994 and 1996 Elections: A Comment and a Forecast," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 88(1-2), pages 115-125, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. May Elsayyad & Shima’a Hanafy, 2014. "Voting Islamist or voting secular? An empirical analysis of voting outcomes in Egypt’s “Arab Spring”," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 109-130, July.
    2. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2008. "Impact of the 1999 Earthquakes on the Outcome of the 2002 Parliamentary Election in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 3466, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Hazama, Yasushi, 2012. "Non-economic voting and incumbent strength in Turkey," IDE Discussion Papers 340, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    4. Che-Yuan Liang, 2013. "Is there an incumbency advantage or cost of ruling in proportional election systems?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 259-284, March.
    5. Ali T. Akarca & Cem Baslevent, 2010. "Inter-party Vote Movements in Turkey: The Role of Economic Evaluations," Working Papers 509, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2010.
    6. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    7. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2012. "Turkish voter response to government incompetence and corruption related to the 1999 earthquakes," MPRA Paper 35894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ali T. Akarca, 2017. "Economic Voting Under Single-Party and Coalition Governments: Evidence From The Turkish Case," Working Papers 1128, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 2017.
    9. Onur Altındağ & Neeraj Kaushal, 2021. "Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 149-178, January.
    10. May Elsayyad & Shima’a Hanafy, 2013. "Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in "Arab Spring" Egypt," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2013-01, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    11. Luca, Davide, 2016. "Votes and Regional Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 477-495.
    12. May Elsayyad & Shima'a Hanafy, 2012. "Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in “Arab Spring” Egypt," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201251, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Ali T. Akarca, 2014. "How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, September.
    14. Pinar Deniz & Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2021. "Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 323-352, April.
    15. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2016. "Voter reaction to government incompetence and corruption related to the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(2), pages 309-335, May.
    16. Cem BASLEVENT, 2001. "Party Preferences and Economic Voting in Turkey (Now That the Crisis is Over)," Middle East and North Africa 330400008, EcoMod.
    17. Ali T. Akarca, 2015. "Modeling political performance of Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties in Turkey," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 49-69, January.
    18. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2008. "Impact of the 1999 Earthquakes and the 2001 Economic Crisis on the Outcome of the 2002 Parliamentary Election in Turkey," Working Papers 397, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2008.
    19. Ali Akarca, 2018. "Political Determinants of Government Structure and Economic Performance in Turkey since 1950," Working Papers 1241, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
    20. Hasan Ersel, 2013. "Politico-Economic Development of Turkey and The Transformation of Political Islam," Working Papers 746, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2013.
    21. Ali T. Akarca, 2010. "Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-38.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2006. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 77-105, October.
    2. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 149-180, July.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 55-72, January.
    5. S. Brock Blomberg, 1996. "A Model Of Voter Choice In A Life‐Cycle Setting," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 213-229, November.
    6. Ray Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2389, Yale School of Management, revised 18 Mar 2007.
    7. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
    8. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    9. Ray C. Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-share Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1602, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Kouvavas, Omiros, 2013. "Political Budget Cycles Revisited, the Case for Social Capital," MPRA Paper 57504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2013.
    11. William D. Nordhaus, 1989. "Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 1-68.
    12. Paola Assael & Felipe Larraín, 1994. "El Ciclo Político-económico: Teoría, Evidencia y Extensión para una Economía Abierta," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(92), pages 87-114.
    13. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper series 42_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    14. Hibbs, Douglas A., 2010. "The 2010 Midterm Election for the US House of Representatives," MPRA Paper 25918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Fabio Milani, 2010. "Political Business Cycles In The New Keynesian Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 896-915, October.
    16. Sami Alpanda & Adam Honig, 2009. "The Impact of Central Bank Independence on Political Monetary Cycles in Advanced and Developing Nations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1365-1389, October.
    17. Holger Kachelein & Endrit Lami & Drini Imami, 2011. "Election-Related Cycles in Publicly Supplied Goods in Albania," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 9(1), pages 13-25.
    18. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    19. Andrew Leigh & Mark Mcleish, 2009. "Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 210-222, June.
    20. Clemens Fuest & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2021. "Read My Lips? Taxes and Elections," EconPol Working Paper 71, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; election;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:met:wpaper:0401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ermettr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Erol Taymaz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ermettr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.