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The 1992, 1994 and 1996 Elections: A Comment and a Forecast

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  • Alesina, Alberto
  • Londregan, John
  • Rosenthal, Howard

Abstract

A model of the two-way relationship between elections and the economy, previously estimated on historical data for 1916-1988, is applied to the United States elections of 1992, 1994, and 1996. The 1992 result was a surprise to the model since the economy had performed reasonably well that election year. The midterm elections of 1994 were accurately forecast. The Republicans took control of Congress not because of unusual circumstances but because of a normal midterm cycle. President Clinton's chances in 1996 look dim given the current modest growth rate and an electoral bias favoring Republican presidential candidates. But an alternative model, keyed more to the voters choosing Clinton to balance the Republican Congress, gives him a reasonable chance of reelection. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Alesina, Alberto & Londregan, John & Rosenthal, Howard, 1996. "The 1992, 1994 and 1996 Elections: A Comment and a Forecast," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 88(1-2), pages 115-125, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:88:y:1996:i:1-2:p:115-25
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2006. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 77-105, October.
    2. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 149-180, July.
    4. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2003. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of The 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results," Working Papers 0321, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2003.

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