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Political Business Cycles in the New Keynesian Model

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  • Fabio Milani

    () (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

Abstract

This paper tests various Political Business Cycle theories in a New Keynesian model with a monetary and fiscal policy mix. All the policy coefficients, the target levels of inflation and the budget deficit, the firms' frequency of price setting, and the standard deviations of the structural shocks are allowed to depend on 'political' regimes: a pre-election vs. post-election regime, a regime that depends on whether the President (or the Fed Chairman) is a Democrat or a Republican, and a regime under which the President and the Fed Chairman share party affiliation in pre-election quarters or not. The model is estimated using full-information Bayesian methods. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed: economic agents can learn about the effect of political variables over time. The results provide evidence that several coefficients depend on political variables. The best-fitting specification is one that allows coefficients to depend on a pre-election vs. non-election regime. Monetary policy becomes considerably more inertial before elections and fiscal policy deviations from a simple rule are more common. The results overall support the view of an independent Fed that avoids taking policy decisions right before elections. There is some evidence, however, that policies become more expansionary before elections, but this evidence seems to disappear in the post-1985 sample. The estimates also indicate that firms similarly delay their price-setting decisions until after the upcoming Presidential election.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Milani, 2007. "Political Business Cycles in the New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 070805, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:070805
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    File URL: https://www.economics.uci.edu/files/docs/workingpapers/2007-08/Milani-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Funashima, Yoshito, 2015. "Governmentally amplified output volatility," MPRA Paper 65330, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Marlen R. Reyes Hernández & Pablo Mejía Reyes & Liliana Rendón Rojas, 2017. "Is there any evidence of political-business cycle in the sectorial employment of Mexico, 1998-2013?," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(1), pages 25-43, Enero-Mar.
    3. Funashima, Yoshito, 2015. "The Fed-Induced Political Business Cycle," MPRA Paper 63654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Funashima, Yoshito, 2016. "Governmentally amplified output volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 469-478.
    5. Funashima, Yoshito, 2016. "The Fed-induced political business cycle: Empirical evidence from a time–frequency view," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 402-411.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political business cycles; Opportunistic cycles; Partisan cycles; Monetary and fiscal policy; Adaptive learning; Bayesian estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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