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Modeling Political Performance of Islamist and Islamist-Rooted Parties in Turkey

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  • Ali T. Akarca

    () (University of Illinois at Chicago)

Abstract

The results of seventeen Turkish elections for parliament and local administrations between 1975 and 2011 and societal developments are studied to understand the factors that determine the political performance of Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties, both while in office and in opposition. A vote equation is built for this purpose which takes into account all of the key factors mentioned in the economic voting literature, such as strategic voting, cost of ruling, incumbency advantage and the economy, as well as impacts of party closures and transformations. The results show that, unlike other parties, the Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties are net beneficiaries of strategic voting not only when they are in opposition but also while in power (except in local elections). On the other hand, the cost for ruling is higher for them. However, how they are affected by their economic performance is similar to that of other incumbent parties. The Islamist parties have adapted over time to party closures, eventually rendering them ineffective. The transformation of the AKP, the current ruling party, from Islamist to conservative democrat, combined with other center-right parties deserting their anti-establishment positions, led to massive vote transfers during 1999-2011 from the latter to the former.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali T. Akarca, 2013. "Modeling Political Performance of Islamist and Islamist-Rooted Parties in Turkey," Working Papers 768, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:768
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ali Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2006. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 77-105, October.
    2. Aysit Tansel & Ali T. Akarca, 2012. "Turkish Voter Response to Government Incompetence and Corruption Related to the 1999 Earthquakes," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1204, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "Inter-Election Vote Swings For The Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact Of Economic Performance And Other Factors," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 7-25, September.
    4. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 12 June 2011 Turkish parliamentary election," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(302), pages 53-74.
    5. Ali T. Akarca, 2010. "Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-38.
    6. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Claudio Ferraz & Frederico Finan, 2008. "Exposing Corrupt Politicians: The Effects of Brazil's Publicly Released Audits on Electoral Outcomes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(2), pages 703-745.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali T. Akarca, 2014. "How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, September.

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