Forecasting elections in Turkey
This paper proposes a model for forecasting elections in Turkey. In doing so, this study is based on three theoretical premises: first, that the voters reward or punish parties according to their performances relative to the macroeconomic conditions; second, that the popularity of the political parties in Turkey are closely connected to their performances in local elections; and third, that the centre-periphery distinction affects the fortunes of the political parties in Turkey. The contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model on which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables on the elections in Turkey by using reliable, public and macro level data. Our findings show that the dynamics of the evaluation of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to those of contemporary democracies, being driven by both economic and political factors. "...why did AKP win? There cannot be a scientific and sociological explanation of this." Özdemir Ince, 17 August 2007, Hürriyet, emphasis added.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Campbell, James E., 2008. "Evaluating U.S. presidential election forecasts and forecasting equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-271.
- Bellucci, Paolo, 2010. "Election cycles and electoral forecasting in Italy, 1994-2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 54-67, January.
- Campbell, James E. & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2008. "US presidential election forecasting: An introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-192.
- Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
- Ali T. AKARCA, 2009. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 29 March 2009 Turkish local elections," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(276), pages 7-22.
- Lebo, Matthew J. & Norpoth, Helmut, 2007. "The PM and the Pendulum: Dynamic Forecasting of British Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 71-87, January.
- Hazama, Yasushi, 2006. "Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives," IDE Discussion Papers 46, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
- Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2008. "Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 227-236.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:4:p:1248-1258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.