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Forecasting elections in Turkey

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  • Toros, Emre

Abstract

This paper proposes a model for forecasting elections in Turkey. In doing so, this study is based on three theoretical premises: first, that the voters reward or punish parties according to their performances relative to the macroeconomic conditions; second, that the popularity of the political parties in Turkey are closely connected to their performances in local elections; and third, that the centre-periphery distinction affects the fortunes of the political parties in Turkey. The contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model on which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables on the elections in Turkey by using reliable, public and macro level data. Our findings show that the dynamics of the evaluation of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to those of contemporary democracies, being driven by both economic and political factors. "...why did AKP win? There cannot be a scientific and sociological explanation of this." Özdemir Ince, 17 August 2007, Hürriyet, emphasis added.

Suggested Citation

  • Toros, Emre, 2011. "Forecasting elections in Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1248-1258, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:4:p:1248-1258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Toros, Emre, 2012. "Forecasting Turkish local elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 813-821.
    2. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2012. "Japanese election forecasting: Classic tests of a hard case," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 797-803.
    3. Andreas Graefe & Kesten C Green & J Scott Armstrong, 2019. "Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, January.

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