Election forecasting in Lithuania: The case of municipal elections
This article explores the possibilities for election forecasting in Lithuania, a post-communist country that has a party system which is characterized by high levels of electoral volatility and fragmentation. The main argument of the article is that despite these unfavorable conditions, election forecasting in Lithuania has potential. Since the sample of national parliamentary elections is too limited for statistical modeling, the possibility of forecasting at the level of municipalities in the municipal council elections is discussed. Four factors (local unemployment change, party’s belonging to the national government, population size and lagged vote share) are integrated into a model that strives to predict the vote share of the party that holds the mayor’s post (the dominant political power in the municipal council). The model presented explains more than 70% of the variance in the dependent variable. The case diagnostics reveal that the model predicts municipal election outcomes very accurately.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 28 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arzheimer, Kai & Evans, Jocelyn, 2010. "Bread and butter à la française: Multiparty forecasts of the French legislative vote (1981-2007)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 19-31, January.
- Rallings, Colin & Thrasher, Michael, 1999. "Local votes, national forecasts - using local government by-elections in Britain to estimate party support," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 153-162, April.
- Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2008. "Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 227-236.
- Campbell, James E., 2008. "Evaluating U.S. presidential election forecasts and forecasting equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-271.
- Jan Vermeir & Bruno Heyndels, 2006. "Tax policy and yardstick voting in Flemish municipal elections," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(19), pages 2285-2298.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:4:p:822-829. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.