IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v24y2008i2p227-236.html

Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model

Author

Listed:
  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
  • Tien, Charles

Abstract

Here, we address the issue of forecasting from statistical models, and how they might be improved. Our real-world example is the forecasting of US presidential elections. First, we ask whether a model should be changed. To illustrate problems and opportunities, we examine the forecasting history of different models, in particular our own, which has tried to foresee presidential selection since 1984. We apply what we learn to the question of whether our Jobs model, which offered an accurate ex ante point estimate for 2004, should be changed for 2008. We conclude there is room for judicious, theory-driven adjustment, but also raise a caution about inadvertent curve-fitting. Some evidence is offered that simple core models, based on strong theory, may perform almost as well as more stretched models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2008. "Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 227-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:2:p:227-236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(08)00028-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-1161, December.
    2. Paldam, Martin, 1986. "The distribution of election results and the two explanations of the cost of ruling," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 5-24.
    3. Mughan, Anthony & Lacy, Dean, 2002. "Economic Performance, Job Insecurity and Electoral Choice," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 513-533, July.
    4. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 1999. "Voters as forecasters: a micromodel of election prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 175-184, April.
    5. Josep M. Colomer, 2007. "What other sciences look like," Economics Working Papers 1017, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    6. Fair, Ray C, 1982. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 322-325, May.
    7. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    8. Lau, Richard R. & Redlawsk, David P., 1997. "Voting Correctly," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(3), pages 585-598, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Toros, Emre, 2012. "Forecasting Turkish local elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 813-821.
    2. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2012. "Japanese election forecasting: Classic tests of a hard case," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 797-803.
    3. Nadeau, Richard & Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Bélanger, Éric, 2010. "Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 11-18, January.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Davide Furceri & Jonathan D Ostry & Chris Papageorgiou & Dennis P Quinn, 2024. "Structural Reforms and Elections: Evidence from a World-Wide New Dataset," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 1936-1980.
    5. repec:jpe:journl:1632 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Arnesen, Sveinung, 2012. "Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 789-796.
    7. Toros, Emre, 2011. "Forecasting elections in Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1248-1258, October.
    8. Mongrain, Philippe & Nadeau, Richard & Jérôme, Bruno, 2021. "Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data: Adding polls to a structural forecasting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 289-301.
    9. Wang, Samuel S.-H., 2015. "Origins of Presidential poll aggregation: A perspective from 2004 to 2012," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 898-909.
    10. Jastramskis, Mažvydas, 2012. "Election forecasting in Lithuania: The case of municipal elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 822-829.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
    2. Stefan Krause & Fabio Méndez, 2009. "Corruption And Elections: An Empirical Study For A Cross‐Section Of Countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 179-200, July.
    3. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2003. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of The 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results," Working Papers 0321, Economic Research Forum, revised 07 2003.
    4. Kouvavas, Omiros, 2013. "Political Budget Cycles Revisited, the Case for Social Capital," MPRA Paper 57504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2013.
    5. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2021. "The impact of political uncertainty on institutional ownership," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. S. Brock Blomberg, 1996. "A Model Of Voter Choice In A Life‐Cycle Setting," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 213-229, November.
    7. Franch, Fabio, 2021. "Political preferences nowcasting with factor analysis and internet data: The 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    8. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.
    9. Campbell, James E. & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2008. "US presidential election forecasting: An introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-192.
    10. David Mitchell, 2023. "Covid-19 and the 2020 presidential election," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 188-209, June.
    11. Andrew Gelman & Jessica Hullman & Christopher Wlezien & George Elliott Morris, 2020. "Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 15(5), pages 863-880, September.
    12. Stephen E. Haynes & Joe A. Stone, 1994. "Why Did Economic Models Falsely Predict A Bush Landslide In 1992?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 123-130, April.
    13. Fuest, Clemens & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas & Ruthardt, Fabian, 2024. "Read my lips? Taxes and elections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    14. Muhammad Shahid Akram & Toseef Azid, 2006. "Economics of Regaining Office: The Case of Pakistan (1947-2005)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 913-923.
    15. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
    16. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
    17. Chortareas, Georgios & Logothetis, Vasileios & Papandreou, Andreas A., 2016. "Political budget cycles and reelection prospects in Greece's municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    18. Wiesen, Taylor, 2023. "Aggregate earnings and market expectations in United States presidential election prediction markets," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    20. Monika Bartkowska & Guido Tiemann, 2015. "The Impact of Economic Perceptions on Voting Behaviour in European Parliamentary Elections," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 201-217, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:2:p:227-236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.