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Why Did Economic Models Falsely Predict A Bush Landslide In 1992?

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  • STEPHEN E. HAYNES
  • JOE A. STONE

Abstract

Most economic models falsely predicted a landslide victory for former President Bush in 1992. Rather than winning by the predicted margin of eight to 12 percentage points, Bush lost by a margin of about four. Exit polls tend to eliminate the unique candidacy of Ross Perot as an explanation for the turnabout. This paper examines three factors: (i) changes in the proportion of the population in the military (a proxy for national security concerns), (ii) the number of consecutive terms of incumbency, and (iii) nonlinear interactions between the military variable and standard economic variables. Including these factors in an economic model of the 1992 presidential race avoids predictions of a landslide victory for Bush and also improves the model's overall power and stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen E. Haynes & Joe A. Stone, 1994. "Why Did Economic Models Falsely Predict A Bush Landslide In 1992?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 123-130, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:12:y:1994:i:2:p:123-130
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00428.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    2. Swank, O H, 1993. "Popularity Functions Based on the Partisan Theory," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 339-356, April.
    3. Fair, Ray C, 1982. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 322-325, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 1994. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1084, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Irem Batool & Gernot Sieg, 2009. "Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 151-165, October.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.
    4. Stephen Haynes & Joe Stone, 2008. "A disaggregate approach to economic models of voting in U.S. presidential elections: forecasts of the 2008 election," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(28), pages 1-11.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:1:y:2004:i:5:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
    7. Fox, Gerald & Phillips, Earl N., 2003. "Interrelationship between presidential approval, presidential votes and macroeconomic performance, 1948-2000," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 411-424, September.
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2008:i:28:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Stephen Haynes & Joe Stone, 2004. "'Guns and butter'' in U.S. presidential elections," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 1(5), pages 1-8.

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