IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-02501677.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981- 2017)

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Auberger

    (IRGEI - Institut de Recherche sur la Gouvernance et l'Economie des Institutions - UP2 - Université Panthéon-Assas)

Abstract

In this article, we study a popularity function for the popularity of the French political parties (1981Q2-2017Q1). At first, we suppose that voters have a retrospective behaviour according to reward-punishment model in a closed economy. We show that the unemployment rate has a significant influence on the popularity of the French political parties. We find unfavourable results for the partisan hypothesis. We also show that the economic openness has an influence on popularity. We also find a partly expected result for the asymmetry hypothesis: punishment without reward. For the political variables, we show the significant influence of the honeymoon effect, the second order elections (regional or European), and the congresses of the Socialist party.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Auberger, 2020. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981- 2017)," Working Papers hal-02501677, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02501677
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02501677
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02501677/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiewiet, D. Roderick, 1981. "Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 448-459, June.
    2. Mueller, John E., 1970. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, March.
    3. Jean-Dominique Lafay & Marie Servais, 2002. "The Impact of Political Scandals on Popularity and Votes," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, vol. 19, pages 153-170.
    4. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    5. Sam Peltzman, 1992. "Voters as Fiscal Conservatives," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 327-361.
    6. Nadeau, Richard & Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Bélanger, Éric, 2010. "Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 11-18, January.
    7. Swank, O H, 1993. "Popularity Functions Based on the Partisan Theory," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 339-356, April.
    8. Kramer, Gerald H., 1971. "Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 131-143, March.
    9. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
    10. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
    11. Mamadou Boukari & Etienne Farvaque, 2018. "Who profits from legislative activism? An analysis of Presidential and Prime Ministerial popularity," Post-Print hal-01914194, HAL.
    12. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, February.
    13. Neck, Reinhard & Karbuz, Sohbet, 1997. "Econometric Estimations of Popularity Functions: A Case Study for Austria," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 91(1), pages 57-88, April.
    14. Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753, December.
    15. Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2004. "Popularity functions, partisan effects, and support in Parliament," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 101-115, March.
    16. Borooah, Vani K & Borooah, Vidya, 1990. "Economic Performance and Political Popularity in the Republic of Ireland," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 65-79, October.
    17. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, unemployment and French presidential elections [Vote, popularité, chômage et élections présidentielles françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480855, HAL.
    18. Sören Enkelmann, 2014. "Government popularity and the economy: first evidence from German microdata," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 999-1017, May.
    19. Dassonneville, Ruth & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2013. "Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 53-66, June.
    20. Alberto Alesina, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-678.
    21. Antoine Auberger, 2015. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981-2014)," Working Papers halshs-01264983, HAL.
    22. Kramer, Gerald H., 1971. "Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 131-143, March.
    23. Wilko Letterie & Otto Swank, 1997. "Electoral and partisan cycles between US economic performance and presidential popularity: a comment on Stephen E. Haynes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1585-1592.
    24. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "An Empirical Study of Politico-Economic Interaction in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 174-183, May.
    25. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135-135.
    26. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1997. "The grievance asymmetry revisited: A micro study of economic voting in Denmark,1986-1992," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 81-99, February.
    27. Christophe Boya & Julien Malizard & Emin Agamaliyev, 2010. "Fonction de popularité, hypothèse de responsabilité et dynamique des partis. Le cas français," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 61(5), pages 859-873.
    28. Swank, Otto H., 1998. "Partisan Policies, Macroeconomic Performance and Political Support," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 367-386, April.
    29. John Maloney & Andrew Pickering, 2015. "Voting and the economic cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 119-133, January.
    30. Bloom, Howard S. & Price, H. Douglas, 1975. "Voter Response to Short-Run Economic Conditions: the Asymmetric Effect of Prosperity and Recession," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1240-1254, December.
    31. Bornier Jean Magnan de & Norpoth H. & Lewis-Beck M.S. & Lafay J.D., 1991. "Economics and Politics The calculus of support," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-3, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    2. Antoine Auberger, 2011. "Popularity Functions for the French President and Prime Minister (1995-2007)," Working Papers halshs-00872313, HAL.
    3. Antoine Auberger, 2015. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981-2014)," Working Papers halshs-01264983, HAL.
    4. Neck, Reinhard & Schneider, Friedrich, 2016. "The Popularity Function: A Spurious Regression? The Case of Austria," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145470, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Sören, 2014. "The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-54.
    6. Toke S. Aidt & Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2007. "Election Results and Opportunistic Policies: An Integrated Approach," NIPE Working Papers 24/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    7. Franch, Fabio, 2021. "Political preferences nowcasting with factor analysis and internet data: The 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    8. Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2003. "Economia, Popularidade e Intenções de Voto em Portugal: uma Análise Longitudinal com Dados Agregados," NIPE Working Papers 3/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. Arnesen, Sveinung, 2012. "Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 789-796.
    10. Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2008. "The political cost of taxation: new evidence from German popularity ratings [Besteuerung und Popularität von Politikern: Neue Ergebnisse für die Deutsche Bundesregierung 1978-2003]," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2008-06, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    11. Henrik Jordahl, 2006. "An economic analysis of voting in Sweden," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 251-265, June.
    12. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
    13. John Maloney & Andrew Pickering, 2015. "Voting and the economic cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 119-133, January.
    14. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    15. E Goulas & C Kallandranis & A Zervoyianni, 2019. "Voting Behaviour and the Economy: Evidence from Greece," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 24(1), pages 35-58, March.
    16. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    17. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2015. "Public investment and reelection prospects in developed countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 471-500, October.
    18. Benny Geys & Jan Vermeir, 2008. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 301-317, June.
    19. Robert R. Prechter Jr. & Deepak Goel & Wayne D. Parker & Matthew Lampert, 2012. "Social Mood, Stock Market Performance, and U.S. Presidential Elections," SAGE Open, , vol. 2(4), pages 21582440124, November.
    20. Möller, Marie, 2011. "Economic voting and economic revolutionizing? The economics of incumbency changes in European democracies and revolutionary events in the Arab World," CIW Discussion Papers 10/2011, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    popularity functions; voters' behaviour; economic situation; political variables; econometric models;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02501677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.