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Economia, Popularidade e Intenções de Voto em Portugal: uma Análise Longitudinal com Dados Agregados

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Abstract

O presente artigo analisa o impacto da economia na popularidade dos governantes e nas intenções de voto dos portugueses. Os resultados das estimações realizadas revelam que: (1) os eleitores portugueses responsabilizam os governantes pela evolução da economia, em particular pelo desemprego; (2) os governos de direita são mais responsabilizados que os de esquerda pela evolução da inflação; (3) a avaliação do desempenho dos governantes é essencialmente retrospectiva. Os dados revelam ainda que a popularidade dos governantes/partidos depende da personalidade do seu líder, que existe erosão da popularidade ao longo de mandatos consecutivos no poder e que os governantes beneficiam de um estado de graça imediatamente após as eleições.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2003. "Economia, Popularidade e Intenções de Voto em Portugal: uma Análise Longitudinal com Dados Agregados," NIPE Working Papers 3/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:3/2003
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    File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2003/NIPE_WP_3_2003.PDF
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cup:apsrev:v:64:y:1970:i:01:p:18-34_12 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "An Empirical Study of Politico-Economic Interaction in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 174-183, May.
    3. repec:cup:apsrev:v:71:y:1977:i:04:p:1467-1487_26 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Swank, O H, 1993. "Popularity Functions Based on the Partisan Theory," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 339-356, April.
    5. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
    6. Francisco JosÈ Veiga & Linda GonÁalves Veiga, 2004. "The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 118(3_4), pages 341-364, March.
    7. Francisco Jose Veiga & Linda Goncalves Veiga, 2004. "Popularity functions, partisan effects, and support in Parliament," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 101-115, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economia; popularidade; intenções de voto; Portugal.;

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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