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The Popularity Function: A Spurious Regression? The Case of Austria

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  • Neck, Reinhard
  • Schneider, Friedrich

Abstract

In this paper we apply the unit root and cointegration methodology of modern econometric time series analysis to estimated popularity functions for the Austrian parties in government since the mid-1970s. We find no evidence for and rather strong evidence against influences of unemployment or inflation on the popularity of the political parties in the federal government, thereby challenging previous studies that claimed to have established such influences. The usefulness of the applied methodology to clarify such questions is demonstrated by this example.

Suggested Citation

  • Neck, Reinhard & Schneider, Friedrich, 2016. "The Popularity Function: A Spurious Regression? The Case of Austria," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145470, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145470
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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