IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sajeco/v77y2009i1p28-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Government Popularity: An Ecowas Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Chun‐ping Chang
  • Yung‐hsiang Ying
  • Meng‐chi Hsieh

Abstract

A main focus of this paper is our analysis of the vote function using the vote share of government parties as the proxy variable for government popularity. Utilising Pedroni's (1999) panel cointegrated test and the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) technique, we empirically examine the long‐run co‐movement relationship in a bivariate model between government popularity and macroeconomic outcomes as well as a lag term in accordance with updated data for 11 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) during the 1975‐2005 period. The results indicate the existence of panel cointegration relationships in our empirical model. The panel FMOLS shows that several macroeconomic shocks are responsible for positive contributions to government popularity, especially in regard to economic growth and government expenditures. By contrast, currency depreciation, higher interest payments, and a greater taxation burden on households all contribute to lower government support in our sample countries. Based on such evidence, important policy implications emerge for ECOWAS.

Suggested Citation

  • Chun‐ping Chang & Yung‐hsiang Ying & Meng‐chi Hsieh, 2009. "Impact Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Government Popularity: An Ecowas Investigation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 28-44, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:77:y:2009:i:1:p:28-44
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2009.01207.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2009.01207.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2009.01207.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1980. "British Government Popularity and Economic Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(3593), pages 569-581, September.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    3. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "An Empirical Study of Politico-Economic Interaction in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 174-183, May.
    4. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 303-320.
    5. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    6. Price, Simon, 1997. "Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 407-427, September.
    7. Carlsen, Fredrik, 1997. "Opinion Polls and Political Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence for the United States," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 387-406, September.
    8. Parantap Basu & Chandana Chakraborty & Derrick Reagle, 2003. "Liberalization, FDI, and Growth in Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 510-516, July.
    9. MacKuen, Michael B. & Erikson, Robert S. & Stimson, James A., 1992. "Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 597-611, September.
    10. D. J. Smyth & S. W. Taylor, 2003. "Presidential popularity: what matters most, macroeconomics or scandals?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 585-588.
    11. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
    12. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-174, March.
    13. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    14. Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 2006. "Polls and Pounds: Public Opinion and Exchange Rate Behavior in Britain," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 25-47, January.
    15. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2004. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 55-74, February.
    16. repec:bla:scandj:v:81:y:1979:i:2:p:343-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Harrison, Michael & Marsh, Michael, 1998. "A re-examination of an Irish government popularity function," Economics Technical Papers 982, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    18. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    19. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
    20. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    21. Frey, Bruno S & Schneider, Friedrich, 1978. "A Politico-Economic Model of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(350), pages 243-253, June.
    22. Harrison, Michael J & Marsh, Michael, 1998. "A Re-examination of an Irish Popularity Function," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 94(3-4), pages 367-383, March.
    23. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    24. Roger Perman & David I. Stern, 2003. "Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), pages 325-347, September.
    25. Block, Steven A., 2002. "Political business cycles, democratization, and economic reform: the case of Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 205-228, February.
    26. Mattila, Mikko, 1996. "Economic Changes and Government Popularity in Scandinavian Countries," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 583-595, October.
    27. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    28. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    30. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Reinhard Neck & Friedrich Schneider, 2024. "The popularity function: a spurious regression? The case of Austria," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 298-329, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chun‐ping Chang & Yung‐hsiang Ying, 2008. "The Generative Power Of Air Freight In The Trade Openness – Economic Growth Nexus In African Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 493-512, September.
    2. Kouvavas, Omiros, 2013. "Political Budget Cycles Revisited, the Case for Social Capital," MPRA Paper 57504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2013.
    3. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    4. Chien-Chiang Lee & Sheng-Tung Chen, 2007. "Do Defence Expenditures Spur Gdp? A Panel Analysis From Oecd And Non-Oecd Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 265-280.
    5. Wang, Kuan-Min, 2011. "Health care expenditure and economic growth: Quantile panel-type analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1536-1549, July.
    6. Silika Prohl & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel cointegration analysis for the European Union Member countries," Economics working papers 2006-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    7. Reinhard Neck & Friedrich Schneider, 2024. "The popularity function: a spurious regression? The case of Austria," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 298-329, February.
    8. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    9. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    10. Chakraborty, Chandana & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2006. "Economic reforms, foreign direct investment and its economic effects in India," Kiel Working Papers 1272, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "The dynamics of information and communications technologies infrastructure, economic growth, and financial development: Evidence from Asian countries," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 135-149.
    12. Yongfu Huang, 2011. "Private investment and financial development in a globalized world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 43-56, August.
    13. Rajesh Sharma & Samaresh Bardhan, 2017. "Finance growth nexus across Indian states: evidences from panel cointegration and causality tests," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 1-20, February.
    14. Kuan‐Min Wang, 2010. "Monetary Policy Impulses and Retail Interest Rate Pass‐Through in Asian Banking Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 253-287, September.
    15. Ritu Rani & Naresh Kumar, 2018. "Panel Data Analysis of Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, May.
    16. Chun-Ping Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2010. "A Re-examination of German Government Approval and Economic Performance: Is There a Stable Relationship between Them?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 25-43.
    17. Saeed, Muhammad Yasir & Ramzan, Muhammad & Hamid, Kashif, 2020. "Causal and Dynamic Link Between the Banking Sector and Economic Growth in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 27(01).
    18. Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2012. "Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 295-327, December.
    19. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2007. "The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2611-2621, April.
    20. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:8:y:2018:i:4:p:399-423 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ozcan, Burcu, 2013. "The nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Middle East countries: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1138-1147.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:77:y:2009:i:1:p:28-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.