Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis
Using panel data unit root tests and panel cointegration tests, as well as estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels such as the full modified OLS, this paper re-examines the long-run co-movement and the causal relationship between GDP and social security expenditure in a bivariate model, employing data on 25 OECD countries from 1980 to 2001. Our cointegration test results show strong evidence in favour of the existence of a long-run equilibrium cointegrating relationship between GDP and social security expenditure after allowing for a heterogeneous country effect. Regarding the panel-based error correction model, we find that GDP and social security expenditure lack short-run causality, but reveal the existence of long-run bidirectional causality. This shows that, in the long run, economic growth must be based on a social welfare policy that should be carried out, and economic growth can facilitate contiguous development in a social welfare policy. Lastly, we also provide evidence to support that social security expenditure can affect growth through the savings and human capital accumulation in OECD countries.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RIEJ20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RIEJ20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ehrlich, Isaac & Zhong, Jian-Guo, 1998. "Social Security and the Real Economy: An Inquiry into Some Neglected Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 151-157, May.
- Barro, Robert J., 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2000.
"The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 615-625, December.
- Asafu-Adjaye, John, 1999. "The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: Time series evidence from Asian developing countries," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 123754, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Pedroni, Peter, 1999.
" Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
- Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Willem H. Buiter & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1992.
"Permanent International Productivity Growth Differentials in an Integrated Global Economy,"
NBER Working Papers
4220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Buiter, Willem H & Kletzer, Kenneth M, 1993. " Permanent International Productivity Growth Differentials in an Integrated Global Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 467-493, December.
- Cigno, Alessandro & Camillio Rosati, Furio, 1997. "Rise and fall of the Japanese saving rate: The role of social security and intra-family transfers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 81-92, March.
- Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
- Perman, Roger & Stern, David I., 2003.
"Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), pages -, September.
- Roger Perman & David I. Stern, 2003. "Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), pages 325-347, 09.
- repec:wop:bodewp:218 is not listed on IDEAS
- Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(2), pages 151-164, June.
- Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999.
"Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "HTUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Harris-Tzavalis unit root test for panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Sanchez-Losada, Fernando, 2000. "Growth effects of an unfunded social security system when there is altruism and human capital," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 95-99, October.
- Robert J. Barro, 1989.
"A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government,"
NBER Working Papers
2855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 271-304 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-174, March.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Alessandro Cigno & Martin Werding, 2007. "Children and Pensions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033690, December.
- Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2001. "Saving Behaviour in OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(0), pages 22-41, Supplemen.
- Jie Zhang & Junsen Zhang, 2004. "How does social security affect economic growth? Evidence from cross-country data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(3), pages 473-500, 08.
- Giorgio Bellettini & Carlotta Berti Ceroni, 1999.
"Is Social Security Really Bad for Growth?,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 796-819, October.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- repec:ntj:journl:v:49:y:1996:i:no._2:p:151-64 is not listed on IDEAS
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bellettini, Giorgio & Ceroni, Carlotta Berti, 2000. "Social security expenditure and economic growth: an empirical assessment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 249-275, September.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Cigno, Alessandro, 1992. "Children and Pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 5(3), pages 175-183, August.
- Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:20:y:2006:i:3:p:303-320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.