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Fertility and prosperity : links between demography and economic growth

  • Martin Werding
  • Sonja Munz
  • Vera Gács

Die vorliegende Studie dokumentiert die Resultate des Forschungsprojekts "Fertility and Prosperity: Links between Demography and Growth", mit dem der Deutsche Arbeitskreis für Familienhilfe e.V., Kirchzarten, das ifo Institut im Dezember 2003 beauftragt hat. Die Studie verfolgt eine zweistufige Forschungsstrategie, (a) mit einer breit angelegten ökonometrischen Analyse möglicher Zusammenhänge zwischen demographischem Wandel und ökonomischer Entwicklung in zahlreichen Industrie- und Entwicklungsländern sowie (b) mit einem Überblick über Geburtenentwicklung und familienpolitische Rahmenbedingungen in einer begrenzten Zahl hochentwickelter Länder. Die Ergebnisse zeigen an, dass der in der Vergangenheit eingetretene Geburtenrückgang durch seine Auswirkungen auf Größe und Altersaufbau der Erwerbsbevölkerung einen nennenswerten negativen Effekt für das Wachstum von Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Pro- Kopf-Einkommen und die Produktivität der verbleibenden Erwerbstätigen haben kann wo immer dieser Trend besonders ausgeprägt war. Zugleich deuten die ökonometrischen Befunde darauf hin, dass eine Steigerung der Geburtenrate in Ländern mit niedriger Fertilität vor allem eine Frage institutioneller Rahmenbedingungen und darauf bezogener politischer Entscheidungen ist. Durch die vertiefte Diskussion eines breiten Spektrums familienpolitischer Maßnahmen in Deutschland, Frankreich, dem Vereinigten Königreich und Schweden wird diese Einsicht weiter konkretisiert.

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This book is provided by Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series ifo Forschungsberichte with number 42 and published in 2008.
Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:42
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