Fertility and Social Security
The data show that an increase in government provided old-age pensions is strongly correlated with a reduction in fertility. What type of model is consistent with this finding? We explore this question using two models of fertility: one by Barro and Becker (1989), and one inspired by Caldwell (1978, 1982) and developed by Boldrin and Jones (2002). In Barro and Becker's model parents have children because they perceive their children's lives as a continuation of their own. In Boldrin and Jones' framework parents procreate because children care about their parents' utility, and thus provide them with old-age transfers. The effect of increases in government provided pensions on fertility in the Barro and Becker model is very small, whereas the effect on fertility in the Boldrin and Jones model is sizeable and accounts for between 55 and 65% of the observed Europe-U.S. fertility differences both across countries and across time.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (612) 204-5000
Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/ Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bental, Benjamin, 1989. "The Old Age Security Hypothesis and Optimal Population Growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 285-301.
- Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989.
"Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
- Barro, R.J. & Becker, G.S., 1988. "Fertility Choice In A Model Of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Megumi Mochida, 2005. "Child Allowances, Fertility, and Uncertain Lifetime," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 05-11, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
- Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1996. "Social security in a non-altruistic model with uncertainty and endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 283-294, May.
- Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McGrattan, Ellen R & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1997.
"An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle with Household Production and Fiscal Policy,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 267-90, May.
- Ellen McGrattan & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 1995. "An equilibrium model of the business cycle with household production and fiscal policy," Staff Report 191, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1992. "The Effects of Financial Markets and Social Security on Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 319-41.
- Veall, Michael R., 1986. "Public pensions as optimal social contracts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 237-251, November.
- Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2002.
"The Baby Boom and Baby Bust,"
Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports
1, Economie d'Avant Garde.
- Antonio Merlo & Cristina Echevarria, 1997.
"Gender differences in education in a dynamic household bargaining model,"
Working Papers. Serie AD
1997-25, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Echevarria, Cristina & Merlo, Antonio, 1999. "Gender Differences in Education in a Dynamic Household Bargaining Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 265-86, May.
- Cristina Echevarria & Antonio Merlo, 1995. "Gender differences in education in a dynamic household bargaining model," Staff Report 195, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Juster, F. Thomas & Stafford, Frank P., 1990.
"The Allocation of Time: Empirical Findings, Behavioural Models, and Problems of Measurement,"
Working Paper Series
258, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Juster, F Thomas & Stafford, Frank P, 1991. "The Allocation of Time: Empirical Findings, Behavioral Models, and Problems of Measurement," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 471-522, June.
- Maddison, Angus, 1994. "Standardised Estimates of Fixed Capital Stock: A Six Country Comparison," GGDC Research Memorandum 199409, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
- Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
- Prinz, Aloys, 1990. "Endogenous Fertility, Altruistic Behavior across Generations, and Social Security Systems," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 179-92, October.
- Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
- Cigno, Alessandro, 1995. "Public pensions with endogenous fertility: Comment on Nishimura and Zhang," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 169-173, May.
- Nishimura, K. & Zhang, J., 1990.
"Pay-As-You-Go Public Pensions With Endogenous Fertility,"
202, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
- Nishimura, Kazuo & Zhang, Junsen, 1992. "Pay-as-you-go public pensions with endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 239-258, July.
- Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
- Yeopil Yoon & Gabriel Talmain, . "Endogenous Fertility, Endogenous Growth and Public Pension System: Should We Switch from a PAYG to a Fully-Funded System?," Discussion Papers 00/31, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Pires, Jorge O. & Garcia, Fernando, 2004.
"Productivity of Nations: a Stochastic Frontier Approach to Tfp Decomposition,"
Textos para discussão
143, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Fernando Garcia & Jorge Oliveira Pires, 2004. "Productivity of Nations: a stochastic frontier approach to TFP decomposition," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 292, Econometric Society.
- Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640.
- Yoon, Yeopil & Talmain, Gabriel, 2001. "Endogenous Fertility, Endogenous Growth and Public Pension System: Should We Switch from a Pay-As-You-Go to a Fully Funded System?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 586-605, Special I.
- Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
- Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1998. "Social Security, the Family, and Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 390-409, July.
- Jie Zhang, 2001. "Long-Run Implications of Social Security Taxation for Growth and Fertility," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 713-724, January.
- Charles Hohm, 1975. "Social security and fertility: An international perspective," Demography, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 629-644, November.
- Karine S. Moe, 1998. "Fertility, Time Use, and Economic Development," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 699-718, July.
- Akira Yakita, 2001. "Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 635-640.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:359. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janelle Ruswick)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.