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Endogenous Fertility, Endogenous Growth and Public Pension System: Should We Switch from a Pay-As-You-Go to a Fully Funded System?


  • Yoon, Yeopil
  • Talmain, Gabriel


In this paper we study the implications of state pension plan reform on fertility and on growth. We extend the Grossman and Yanagawa endogenous growth framework by incorporating altruism, making fertility endogenous. We investigate the effect on long-run growth of a switch from a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system to a fully funded system. We show that a PAYG pension system is associated with a lower fertility rate than a fully funded system. This lower fertility in turn increases the rate of growth. Hence, switching from a PAYG system to a fully funded system may be harmful, especially for developing countries in which limited resources are heavily stressed by high fertility rates. In addition, we propose a hypothetical pension system, the saving subsidy programme (SSP), which would yield a higher growth rate than the PAYG system. The SSP consists of a minimum benefit level for each retired and of a subsidy to private savings. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

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  • Yoon, Yeopil & Talmain, Gabriel, 2001. "Endogenous Fertility, Endogenous Growth and Public Pension System: Should We Switch from a Pay-As-You-Go to a Fully Funded System?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 586-605, Special I.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:69:y:2001:i:5:p:586-605

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
    2. Sensier, M. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth: evidence in US macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Romer, Christina D., 1994. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 573-609, September.
    4. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-996, November.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    6. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 1998. "Bayes factors and nonlinearity: Evidence from economic time series1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 251-281, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zou, Tieding, 2016. "人口冲击、环境变动与家庭养老——基于多因素分解视角
      [Effects of Population and Environment Changing on Family Pension——Based on the perspective of Its Factors]
      ," MPRA Paper 79760, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jan 2017.
    2. Michele BOLDRIN & Mariacristina DE NARDI & Larry E. JONES, 2015. "Fertility and Social Security," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 261-299, September.
    3. Johannes Holler, 2007. "Pension Systems and their Influence on Fertility and Growth," Vienna Economics Papers 0704, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

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