IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/20727.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic growth and stability with public PAYG pensions and private intra-family old-age insurance

Author

Listed:
  • Fanti, Luciano
  • Gori, Luca

Abstract

This paper investigates the steady state and dynamical effects of two historical alternatives as a means of old-age insurance – i.e., voluntary intra-family transfers from young to old members versus pay-as-you-go public pensions –, in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with children as a desirable good. It is shown that the shift from a private system of old-age insurance to a public system of social security increases GDP per worker. Moreover, although in both cases the dynamics of capital, under myopic expectations, may be globally unstable depending on the size of the (private as well as public) inter-generational transfer, we show that such a shift significantly reduces, for plausible economies, the risk of cyclical instability which otherwise would be dramatically high, especially in countries with high degree of parsimony and low preference for children.

Suggested Citation

  • Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Economic growth and stability with public PAYG pensions and private intra-family old-age insurance," MPRA Paper 20727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20727
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20727/1/MPRA_paper_20727.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pecchenino, Rowena A. & Pollard, Patricia S., 2002. "Dependent children and aged parents: funding education and social security in an aging economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 145-169, June.
    2. Cigno, Alessandro, 1995. "Public pensions with endogenous fertility: Comment on Nishimura and Zhang," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 169-173, May.
    3. Bas Groezen & Lex Meijdam, 2008. "Growing old and staying young: population policy in an ageing closed economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 573-588, July.
    4. Bental, Benjamin, 1989. "The Old Age Security Hypothesis and Optimal Population Growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 1(4), pages 285-301.
    5. Michel, Philippe & de la Croix, David, 2000. "Myopic and perfect foresight in the OLG model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 53-60, April.
    6. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-1059, October.
    7. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    8. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Public Pensions and Growth," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 56(2), pages 241-241, June.
    9. Nishimura, Kazuo & Zhang, Junsen, 1992. "Pay-as-you-go public pensions with endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 239-258, July.
    10. Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "Optimum Social Security in a Life-Cycle Growth Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 539-544, October.
    11. Eckstein, Zvi & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1985. "Endogenous fertility and optimal population size," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 93-106, June.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2002. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Nishimura, Kazuo & Zhang, Junsen, 1995. "Sustainable Plans of Social Security with Endogenous Fertility," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 182-194, January.
    14. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    15. Morand, Olivier F, 1999. "Endogenous Fertility, Income Distribution, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 331-349, September.
    16. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 33-55, Spring.
    17. Alessandro Cigno & Martin Werding, 2007. "Children and Pensions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033690, December.
    18. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
    19. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640.
    20. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stauvermann, Peter J. & Ky, Sereyvath & Nam, Gi-Yu, 2013. "The Costs of Increasing the Fertility Rate in an Endogenous Growth Model," MPRA Paper 46381, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 529-564, April.
    2. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2013. "Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1209-1232, July.
    3. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Public Expenditure on Health and Private Old-Age Insurance in an OLG Growth Model with Endogenous Fertility: Chaotic Dynamics Under Perfect Foresight," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 333-353, December.
    4. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Public expenditure on health and private old-age insurance in an OLG growth model with endogenous fertility: chaotic cycles under perfect foresight," MPRA Paper 23697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Cigno, A., 2016. "Conflict and Cooperation Within the Family, and Between the State and the Family, in the Provision of Old-Age Security," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 609-660, Elsevier.
    6. Filoso, Valerio & Papagni, Erasmo, 2015. "Fertility choice and financial development," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 160-177.
    7. Koichi Miyazaki, 2013. "Pay-as-you-go social security and endogenous fertility in a neoclassical growth model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1233-1250, July.
    8. Michele BOLDRIN & Mariacristina DE NARDI & Larry E. JONES, 2015. "Fertility and Social Security," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 261-299, September.
    9. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis, 1997. "The problem of population and growth: A review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 205-242, January.
    10. Masaya Yasuoka, 2014. "Child-care Policies and Pension in an Endogenous Fertility Model," Discussion Paper Series 114, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jan 2014.
    11. Yasuoka, Masaya, 2018. "Endogenous Fertility and Pension System," MPRA Paper 86131, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Vincenzo Galasso & Roberta Gatti & Paola Profeta, 2009. "Investing for the old age: pensions, children and savings," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(4), pages 538-559, August.
    13. Richard C. Barnett & Joydeep Bhattacharya & Mikko Puhakka, 2018. "Private versus public old-age security," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 703-746, July.
    14. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Endogenous fertility and development traps with endogenous lifetime," MPRA Paper 26147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2011. "Child policy ineffectiveness in an overlapping generations small open economy with human capital accumulation and public education," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 404-409.
    16. Pan, Jiun-Nan & Yang, Yan-Jie, 2020. "The impact of economic uncertainty on the decision of fertility: Evidence from Taiwan," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Yasuoka, Masaya & Goto, Naohisa, 2011. "Pension and child care policies with endogenous fertility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2478-2482.
    18. Masatoshi Jinno & Masaya Yasuoka, 2016. "Are the social security benefits of pensions or child-care policies best financed by a consumption tax?," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 12(3), pages 94-112, September.
    19. Masaya Yasuoka & Naohisa Goto, 2015. "How is the child allowance to be financed? By income tax or consumption tax?," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(3), pages 249-269, September.
    20. Masaya Yasuoka, 2013. "Can Child-Care Support Policies Halt Decreasing Fertility?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 409-419.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous fertility; Myopic foresight; OLG model; Private old-age support; Public PAYG pensions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20727. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.