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What explains fertility? Evidence from Italian pension reforms

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  • Francesco C. Billari

    (Dondena, Università Bocconi and IGIER)

Abstract

Why do people have kids in developed societies? We propose an empirical test of two alternative theories -- children as "consumption" vs. "investment" good. We use as a natural experiment the Italian pension reforms of the 90s that introduced a clear discontinuity in the treatment across workers. This policy experiment is particularly well suited, since the "consumption" motive predicts lower future pensions to reduce fertility, while the "old-age security" to increase it. Our empirical analysis identifies a clear and robust positive effect of less generous future pensions on post-reform fertility. These findings are consistent with "old-age security" even for contemporary fertility.

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  • Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "What explains fertility? Evidence from Italian pension reforms," 2009 Meeting Papers 807, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:807
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    2. Padula, Mario & Battistin, Erich & De Nadai, Michele, 2014. "Roadblocks on the Road to Grandma's House: Fertility Consequences of Delayed Retirement," CEPR Discussion Papers 9945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Robert Fenge & Beatrice Scheubel, 2017. "Pensions and fertility: back to the roots," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 93-139, January.
    4. Luis Henrique Paiva & Santiago Falluh Varella, 2019. "The impacts of social protection benefits on behaviours potentially related to economic growth: a literature review," Working Papers 183, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    5. M.L. Leroux & P. Pestieau, 2014. "Social Security and Family Support," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(1), pages 115-143, February.
    6. Robert Fenge & Beatrice Scheubel, 2013. "Pensions and Fertility: Back to the Roots - The Introduction of Bismarck's Pension Scheme and the European Fertility Decline," CESifo Working Paper Series 4383, CESifo.
    7. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2009. "A Convex Hull Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Trade Openness and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 2692, CESifo.
    8. Idris, Asma Rashidah & Habibullah, Muzafar & Haji Din, Badariah, 2018. "Does Financial Development Contribute to Fertility Decline in Malaysia? An Empirical Investigation," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 191-203.
    9. Mikko Puhakka & Matti Viren, 2012. "Social Security, Saving and Fertility," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 28-42, Spring.
    10. Alexander M. Danzer & Lennard Zyska, 2023. "Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 126-165, May.
    11. Filip Chybalski & Edyta Marcinkiewicz, 2023. "Grandparents ""on Board"":How They Translateinto the Number of Their Young Grandchildren," LWS Working papers 40, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    12. Maarten J. Bijlsma & Ben Wilson, 2017. "Modelling the socio-economic determinants of fertility: a mediation analysis using the parametric g-formula," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Melinda Mills & Nicoletta Balbo, 2011. "The influence of the family network on the realisation of fertility intentions," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 179-206.
    14. Vincenzo Galasso & Roberta Gatti & Paola Profeta, 2009. "Investing for the old age: pensions, children and savings," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(4), pages 538-559, August.
    15. Erich Battistin & Michele De Nadai & Mario Padula, 2015. "Roadblocks on the Road to Grandma�s House: Fertility Consequences of Delayed Retirement," Working Papers 748, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    16. Flaubert Mbiekop, 2012. "On Governance and the Demographic Transition," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 4(6), pages 319-330.
    17. Daniela Bellani & Bruno Arpino & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Time preferences and fertility: Evidence from Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(50), pages 1185-1228.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D64 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Altruism; Philanthropy; Intergenerational Transfers
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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