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Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander M. Danzer
  • Lennard Zyska

Abstract

This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women's fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil's expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go pension system in the long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander M. Danzer & Lennard Zyska, 2023. "Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 126-165, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:126-65
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200440
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gobbi, Paula & Hannusch, Anne & Rossi, Pauline, 2025. "Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 18262, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Timothy W. Guinnane & Jochen Streb, 2021. "The Introduction of Bismarck's Social Security System and its Effects on Marriage and Fertility in Prussia," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(3), pages 749-780, September.
    3. Filip Chybalski & Edyta Marcinkiewicz, 2024. "Grandparents “on board”: How they translate into the households’ fertility decisions," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 51(2), pages 233-250, June.
    4. Zhao, Da & Zhang, Jun & Tang, Jue, 2024. "Job insecurity and fertility: Evidence from massive lay-offs in urban China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Rao, Ziwei & Zhang, Yi, 2024. "Rely on children or work longer? The impact of fertility and child gender on old-age labor supply," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    6. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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