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Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition

Author

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  • Paula E. Gobbi
  • Anne Hannusch
  • Pauline Rossi

Abstract

Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Paula E. Gobbi & Anne Hannusch & Pauline Rossi, 2026. "Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 47-70, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:40:y:2026:i:1:p:47-70
    DOI: 10.1257/jep.20251460
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Steven J. Davis & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Katelyn Cranney & Mathias Dolls & Pablo Zarate, 2026. "Work from Home and Fertility," NBER Working Papers 34963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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